光大期货碳酸锂日报（2025 年 10 月 16 日）-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On October 15, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract fell 0.6% to 72,720 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 70,750 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 73,180 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,104 tons to 33,076 tons [3]. - The overall supply is expected to increase month - on - month. The domestic weekly production continued to increase slightly, with the lithium carbonate production in October increasing 3% month - on - month to about 90,000 tons. In terms of imports and exports, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile decreased in September, which may have a certain but not significant impact on the import of lithium salts in October. On the demand side, October is still in the peak season. The consumption of lithium carbonate by two major main materials increased 2% month - on - month to 104,800 tons, and the total consumption of lithium carbonate by cathode materials, electrolytes, and others increased 7% month - on - month to 123,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline to 135,000 tons, and the total inventory turnover days decreased significantly. From the perspective of weekly inventory flow, downstream and intermediate links reduced inventory, while upstream increased inventory [3]. - The peak demand season, lithium carbonate inventory reduction, and firm lithium ore prices support the price. However, there is still an expectation of project复产, and with the addition of overseas import increments, the domestic tight balance will gradually be alleviated, and the price will fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 72,720 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 72,660 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) remained at 828 US dollars/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 1,025 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained at 1,725 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) increased 45 yuan to 6,025 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) increased 55 yuan to 7,125 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,000 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 70,750 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan to 73,180 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) dropped 50 yuan to 78,150 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 100 yuan to 67,900 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) dropped 0.03 US dollars/kg to 9.45 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price increased 500 yuan to 74,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,250 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased 50 yuan to 180 yuan/ton; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased 188 yuan to - 6,089.73 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) increased 2,000 yuan to 101,650 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) increased 1,200 yuan to 92,825 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased 1,300 yuan to 85,550 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) increased 1,000 yuan to 104,825 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased 3,500 yuan to 125,425 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) increased 3,000 yuan to 128,500 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased 1,000 yuan to 126,275 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) increased 1,200 yuan to 155,800 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) remained at 33,530 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage) remained at 32,135 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) remained at 29,350 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate (power type) dropped 1,000 yuan to 32,000 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) dropped 250 yuan to 30,250 yuan/ton; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) increased 9,500 yuan to 351,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Cells and Batteries: The price of 523 square ternary cells remained at 0.396 yuan/Wh; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained at 0.41 yuan/Wh; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries remained at 4.42 yuan/piece; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells remained at 0.332 yuan/Wh; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) remained at 0.34 yuan/Wh; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells increased 0.1 yuan to 6.75 yuan/Ah; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries remained at 0.303 yuan/Wh [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts 1 - 4 show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts 5 - 10 show the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [10][14] - Price Spreads: Charts 11 - 15 show the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [18][21] - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts 16 - 20 show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][27][29] - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts 21 - 24 show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][33] - Inventory: Charts 25 - 27 show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February 20, 2025, to October 9, 2025 [37][39] - Production Costs: Chart 28 shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [43]