新能源产业链日度策略-20251016

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The lithium salt market is currently experiencing strong supply and demand. However, after the holiday, as the atmosphere in the new energy vehicle market changes and the downstream replenishment pace slows, there is a risk of lithium salt price decline. For industrial silicon, the short - term supply and demand are okay, but there is uncertainty in the future. For polysilicon, the situation of strong expectation and weak reality continues, and the market may fluctuate due to policy news [3][5][8] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory First Part: Spot Prices 1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - For lithium carbonate 11, the market is characterized by strong supply and demand with a weakening atmosphere. The upstream is recommended to seize the opportunity of selling hedging when the price surges, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stocking or buying hedging. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 75,000 - 76,000. - For industrial silicon 11, although there is an increasing expectation of demand - side production cuts, the price still has support below. It is recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy and consider long - position allocation in the current interval. The support level is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure level is 9,200 - 9,300. - For polysilicon 11, with the news of capacity control policies, long positions can be held cautiously. If one wants to increase positions, it is recommended to participate through buying call options. The support level is 47,000 - 48,000, and the pressure level is 52,000 - 53,000 [14] 1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes - The closing price of lithium carbonate is 72,720, with a daily increase of 0.06%, trading volume of 225,238, open interest of 188,523 (a decrease of 4,408 compared to the previous day), and 33,076 warehouse receipts. - The closing price of industrial silicon is 8,570, with a daily increase of 0.59%, trading volume of 225,068, open interest of 142,381 (a decrease of 20,293 compared to the previous day), and 50,357 warehouse receipts. - The closing price of polysilicon is 50,865, with a daily increase of 3.37%, trading volume of 276,176, open interest of 80,114 (a decrease of 1,274 compared to the previous day), and 8,050 warehouse receipts [15] Second Part: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: During the holiday week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, an increase of 119 tons compared to the previous week, reaching a new weekly production high. Except for a slight decrease in the production of lithium extracted from mica, the production of other lithium - extraction processes continued to rise. The total sample inventory of lithium carbonate last week was 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons in the past two weeks, but the inventory was still at a high level. The inventory of lithium salt enterprises increased around the holiday, the inventory in the intermediate links decreased, and the downstream inventory slightly declined [3] - Downstream Situation: The downstream material factories are becoming more cautious, and the overall market trading activity is average. From October 1 - 12, the wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 546,000, a year - on - year decrease of 11% and a 15% decrease compared to the same period last month [3] 2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: Southwest China will enter the dry season in November, and production cuts may be planned at the end of October, while large factories in Xinjiang have production increase expectations. The total production of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in October and gradually decline in November [5] - Downstream Situation: The traditional peak season demand is okay, and the production of the polysilicon segment continues to increase. However, considering the "production - limit and sales - control" self - discipline plan in the industry, there is great uncertainty in demand. The news of capacity control in the photovoltaic industry on Tuesday has increased the market's concern about the future demand for industrial silicon [5] 2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: Driven by high profits, enterprises are highly motivated to produce, and the production of polysilicon in October will exceed expectations. However, due to weak terminal demand, downstream production cuts are gradually advancing, and the polysilicon inventory has shown an obvious accumulation trend. As of the week of October 10, the national polysilicon sample inventory was 253,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,700 tons [8] - Downstream Situation: The national photovoltaic new - installed capacity in August was only 7.36GW, hitting a new low this year, indicating a weak downstream demand [8]