9月金融数据点评：为何M1增速“跳升”？

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In September 2025, M1 increased by 1.2% year-on-year to 7.2%, while credit balance decreased by 0.2% to 6.6%[1][7] - Social financing stock declined by 0.1% year-on-year to 8.7%[1][7] - New credit in September was 12,900 billion RMB, a decrease of 3,000 billion RMB year-on-year[4][22] Group 2: M1 and Fiscal Policy - The improvement in M1 is attributed to accelerated fiscal spending, with fiscal deposits decreasing by 840 billion RMB, a reduction of 604.2 billion RMB compared to the previous year[2][8] - Corporate deposits saw a significant increase, with a monthly addition of 919.4 billion RMB, up by 149.4 billion RMB year-on-year[2][8] - Non-bank deposits decreased significantly, which may have contributed to the marginal support for M1 growth[2][8] Group 3: Loan Performance - Resident loans added 389 billion RMB in September, down by 111 billion RMB year-on-year, indicating a cautious attitude towards debt[2][10] - Corporate loans remained primarily short-term, with short-term loans and bill financing growth declining by 0.4% to 9.3%[3][13] - Despite a recovery in PPI and PMI indices, corporate investment attitudes have not shifted positively[3][13] Group 4: Future Outlook - The collaboration of fiscal and monetary policies is expected to support the stability of social financing, with 500 billion RMB in new policy financial tools launched to leverage more credit and social capital[3][19] - The new policy tools are designed to enhance project capital and are expected to have a strong leverage effect on credit funding[3][19]