集运日报：中国制裁韩造船商中美贸易摩擦阴晴不定，盘面或保持震荡，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损-20251016

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Amid China's sanctions on South Korean shipbuilders and the uncertain Sino - US trade friction, the market may remain volatile. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It's recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [2][6]. - Although the SCFI index has rebounded, the overall atmosphere is still bearish, and the market is under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [6]. Summary by Related Content Freight Indexes - On October 13, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1031.8 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 862.48 points, down 1.6% from the previous period. On October 10, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 818.97 points, up 11.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 698.67 points, up 11.39% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 844.43 points, down 0.34% from the previous period [4]. - On October 10, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1160.42 points, up 45.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1068 USD/TEU, up 9.9% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 1468 USD/FEU, up 10.76% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1014.78 points, down 6.7% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1287.15 points, down 8.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 777.77 points, down 5.7% from the previous period [4]. Economic Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service industry PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding expectations of 50.5. The eurozone's September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected value of - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [4]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [5]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [5]. Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff issue has shown a marginal effect. As of October 10, the main contract 2512 closed at 1570.0, down 3.04%, with a trading volume of 31,500 lots and an open interest of 28,100 lots, an increase of 3834 lots from the previous day [6]. - The situation in the Middle East is improving, but the overall atmosphere is still bearish, and the market is under downward pressure [6]. Strategies - Short - term Strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [7]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [7]. - Long - term Strategy: Each contract is advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [7]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [7]