中美互征港口费点评：跨太平洋航线运营成本或明显增加，“中转贸易”增加航线网络或将重构

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [5][11] Core Viewpoints - The reciprocal port fees imposed by the US and China are expected to significantly increase operating costs on trans-Pacific routes, potentially impacting the profits of shipping, port, and freight forwarding companies in the short term. Companies with strong cost pass-through capabilities should be monitored. Additionally, this situation may lead to an increase in "roundabout trade" through third countries, resulting in a restructuring of the shipping network [1][5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on opportunities in the shipping and port sector after adjustments, with key recommendations including China Merchants Industry Holdings and COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers. Other companies to watch include COSCO Shipping Holdings, Zhonggu Logistics, COSCO Shipping Energy, Tangshan Port, Qingdao Port, and China Merchants Port [3][5] Key Supporting Points - The US Trade Representative (USTR) has officially announced that starting from October 14, 2025, all vessels owned or operated by Chinese enterprises will incur a fixed fee of $50 per net ton for each voyage to the US. Non-Chinese operated vessels built by Chinese shipyards will be charged either $18 per net ton or $120 per standard container, whichever is higher. This additional port fee is expected to directly increase operating costs for shipping lines [5][6][11] - Over 3,000 US-flagged vessels will be affected by the special port fees, with an estimated additional cost exceeding $3 billion for the US-bound fleet next year. The impact will be particularly significant for COSCO Shipping Group, which is expected to incur fees of approximately $1.527 billion, accounting for nearly half of the total [5][6][11] - The emergence of "roundabout trade" may increase, as shippers might opt to transport goods to Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam and Malaysia for processing before exporting to the US as "non-Chinese origin" products. This could create new secondary shipping route demands while potentially undermining the direct mainline routes between China and the US [1][5][6]