银行行业月报：政策持续发力-20251016

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market in the next six months [23]. Core Insights - In September, the total social financing (TSF) stock growth rate was 8.7%, a slight decrease of 0.1% from August. The new TSF added was 3.53 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 0.23 trillion yuan, influenced by a slowdown in government bond issuance and a decline in credit growth [3][10]. - The new credit and net financing from government bonds in September were 1.61 trillion yuan and 1.19 trillion yuan, respectively, both showing year-on-year decreases of 0.37 trillion yuan and 0.35 trillion yuan [3][10]. - By the end of September, the total social financing stock reached 437.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% [10]. - For the first nine months of 2025, the total new TSF added was 30.09 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 4.42 trillion yuan year-on-year, with net financing from government bonds reaching 11.46 trillion yuan, up by 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [10]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - The September social financing stock growth rate was 8.7%, down 0.1% from August. The new social financing added was 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.23 trillion yuan due to reduced government bond issuance and weaker credit growth [3][10]. - The new credit in September was 1.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3 trillion yuan, with the total RMB loan balance at 270.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [14]. M1 and M2 Growth - In September, M2 grew by 8.4%, with a 0.4% decrease in growth rate compared to the previous month. M1 saw a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, with a 1.2% increase in growth rate from the previous month, supported by fiscal net spending [19]. Investment Recommendations - Looking ahead to October, it is expected that policy financial tools will continue to be implemented, potentially providing support for credit. The current dividend yield in the banking sector remains attractive, suggesting that long-term funds will continue to allocate towards the banking sector, which may help solidify the valuation floor for the sector [20].