银行业数据点评：信贷增量弱、结构改善

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10]. Core Insights - The growth rate of social financing has slowed down, with a weak credit increment but an improvement in structure. In September, the social financing growth rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 8.7%, continuing its gradual decline. The growth rates of financial institution loans and medium to long-term loans also fell to 6.6% and 6.3%, respectively, primarily due to a significant reduction in bill financing and a continuous improvement in corporate loan structure [6][12]. - In September, the new social financing amounted to 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan, mainly due to a substantial decline in government bond financing and bill financing, with government bond financing down by 347.1 billion yuan year-on-year [6][12]. - The new RMB loans in September were 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 366.2 billion yuan, with a reduction in bill discounting weakening credit growth. However, the amount of undiscounted bills increased by 192.3 billion yuan year-on-year [6][12]. - The growth of residents' medium to long-term loans has been supported by policy measures, with a year-on-year increase of 20 billion yuan in September, while short-term loans decreased by 127.9 billion yuan [6][15]. - The corporate loan structure has improved significantly, with new corporate loans amounting to 1.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 270 billion yuan, primarily due to a notable reduction in bill financing [7][15]. Summary by Sections Credit Data Analysis - The credit data for September shows a trend of structural improvement, with the expectation that subsequent policy financial tools will support medium to long-term credit stability. The cost of deposits continues to decline, and the interest margin is expected to stabilize, leading to relatively stable banking performance [9][32]. - The M1 and M2 growth rates indicate a narrowing gap, with M1 growing by 7.2% and M2 by 8.4% in September. The increase in M1 is likely related to accelerated fiscal spending [8][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned banks for their stable high dividend configuration value, as well as opportunities for valuation recovery in joint-stock banks and regional banks under improved economic expectations. Recommended banks include CITIC Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Chengdu Bank, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Changshu Bank, and Suzhou Bank [10][32].