2025年9月金融数据点评：M2增速：为何小幅回落

Group 1: M2 Growth and Monetary Policy - M2 growth rate decreased to 8.4% in September from 8.8% in the previous month[16] - M1 growth rate rebounded to 7.2% from 6.0%[16] - The decline in M2 growth is attributed to a slowdown in government bond issuance and a decrease in corporate foreign exchange settlement tendencies[1] Group 2: Social Financing and Credit - Social financing stock growth slightly decreased to 8.7% in September, down from 8.8%[7] - New social financing amounted to 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan[9] - New loans (social financing perspective) totaled 1.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 366.2 billion yuan, with the loan balance dropping to 6.6%[7] Group 3: Credit Structure and Trends - New credit in September was 1.29 trillion yuan, down 300 billion yuan year-on-year[11] - Corporate short-term loans were the main support, with 710 billion yuan added, a year-on-year increase of 250 billion yuan[11] - The increase in corporate short-term loans is linked to local governments resolving triangular debts and actual financing needs driven by production activities[11] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Incremental policies are on the way, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" expected to be released soon, indicating potential for total policy support[23] - The overall weak trend of the US dollar suggests continued potential for RMB appreciation, with the central bank adjusting the exchange rate midpoint to below 7.1[23] - Risks include the possibility that the recovery of the private sector's balance sheets may not meet expectations[26]