物价延续低位运行趋势：2025年9月物价点评

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the price index remained under pressure, with CPI and PPI year-on-year in negative territory for two consecutive months. The CPI was mainly dragged down by food and energy prices, while the core CPI continued to grow steadily. The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed for two consecutive months, and the month-on-month remained flat [1]. - In the fourth quarter, the economic downward pressure may increase, and the possibility of using policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future rises. Attention should be paid to the continuity of incremental policies and signals of price level improvement [1]. - The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in October [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI was -0.3% year-on-year, up 0.1 pct from the previous month, and +0.1% month-on-month, up 0.1 pct from the previous month. The core CPI year-on-year increase expanded to 1.0% for five consecutive months, possibly affected by consumption promotion policies and the rise in gold prices [1]. - Food prices have been negative year-on-year for eight consecutive months. In September 2025, food prices decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, dragging down the CPI year-on-year by about -0.77 pct. Non-food prices increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for four consecutive months [1]. - In Q4, food price declines may ease due to the low base last year, service prices may maintain steady growth, and the performance of household goods and services prices may continue to be excellent [1]. PPI Analysis - In September, the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.3%, up 0.6 pct from the previous month, and the month-on-month remained flat. The narrowing of the year-on-year decline was mainly due to the improvement in the prices of some domestic energy and raw material industries and the influence of international commodity price fluctuations [1]. - Policy-driven market environment improvement and industrial upgrading are the core supports for PPI stabilization, but the policy effect is weakening marginally. In Q4, the year-on-year decline of production material prices may continue to narrow, but it is difficult to turn positive year-on-year [1]. Economic Outlook - In the fourth quarter, the economy may face downward pressure. Consumption and exports may be under pressure, and the external environment is complex. The possibility of using policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future increases [1]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in October [1]. - It is predicted that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury bond to 1.9%, and the 5Y large bank secondary capital bond to 1.9% [1].