如何解读9月金融数据？：2025年9月金融数据点评

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in October, with the bond market offensive preferably choosing 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y Treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, new loans increased month - on - month but significantly decreased year - on - year. Credit demand may continue to be weak, and there may be pressure for negative loan growth in October. M1 growth may have reached a peak, and M2 growth decreased slightly. Social financing growth continued to decline, and it is expected that the annual new loans (social financing caliber) will decrease year - on - year, while government bond net financing will expand significantly, with social financing growth likely to rise first and then fall, reaching about 8.0% at the end of the year [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs New Loans - In September 2025, new loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, with individual loans increasing by 389 billion yuan, corporate loans increasing by 1.22 trillion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans decreasing by 234.8 billion yuan. Credit demand may be affected by factors such as fiscal policy, local debt control, and industry over - capacity, and there may be negative growth pressure in October [2] M1 and M2 - In late September 2025, the new - caliber M1 growth rate was 7.2%, up 1.2 percentage points month - on - month, which may be related to the large - scale deposit - boosting by wealth management products and the active stock market. M1 growth may decline in the fourth quarter. The M2 growth rate was 8.4%, down slightly month - on - month [2] Social Financing - In September 2025, the social financing increment was 3.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease mainly due to loans and government bond net financing. The social financing growth rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 8.7% month - on - month. It is expected that the annual social financing will increase year - on - year, with the growth rate rising first and then falling, reaching about 8.0% at the end of the year [2] Bond Market Outlook - The report is bullish on the bond market in October, based on factors such as potential economic downward pressure, banks' increased bond allocation due to weak credit demand and lower liability costs, and the possibility of a policy interest rate cut in Q4. It is predicted that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will return to around 1.65%, the 30Y Treasury bond yield will reach 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bond yield will reach 1.9% [2]