银河期货白糖日报-20251016

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Globally, the sugar production increase in major producing areas is being realized. Brazil is in the peak supply period, with a significant increase in sugar production. The cumulative sugar production is almost the same as last year, and it is expected to remain high in the near - term. With the recent decline in crude oil prices, the support from ethanol for sugar has weakened, and the fundamental situation of raw sugar is weak. The main contract has fallen below the previous low, and the downward space has been opened, indicating a generally weak trend. - In the domestic market, the supply is mainly from imported sugar recently. Given the weak price trend of foreign sugar, it is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will follow the trend of the foreign market in the short - term. The trading strategy suggests short - selling on rallies, and recommends a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [11][12]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures Market: SR09 closed at 5,391 with a 0.04% increase; SR01 closed at 5,408 with a 0.09% increase; SR05 closed at 5,374 with a 0.06% increase. The trading volume of SR01 was 144,443, with a decrease of 19,746, and the open interest increased by 4,928 [5]. - Spot Market: The spot prices in different regions had minor changes. For example, the price in Liuzhou was 5,810 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The basis in Liuzhou was 402 yuan/ton [5]. - Inter - month Spreads: SR5 - SR01 spread was - 34, down 2; SR09 - SR5 spread was 17, down 1; SR09 - SR01 spread was - 17, down 3 [5]. - Import Profits: The in - quota price for Brazilian imports was 4,278 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 5,444 yuan/ton. The in - quota price for Thai imports was 4,299 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 5,470 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Judgment - Important Information: Brazil's estimated sugarcane planting area in 2025 is 9.355219 million hectares, up 1.5% from last month's estimate and the same as in 2024. The sugarcane production is estimated to be 695.532937 million tons, the same as last month's estimate but down 1.6% from 2024. As of October 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 90, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.7272 million tons, up 3.3% from the previous week [7]. - Logic Analysis: The global sugar production increase is being realized, and the raw sugar market is weak. The domestic market is expected to follow the foreign market in the short - term [11]. - Trading Strategy: - Single - side Trading: Short - sell on rallies. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [12]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including those showing monthly inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan, sales - to - production ratios in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, price spreads between Liuzhou and Kunming, and various basis and price spreads of sugar futures contracts [14][18][21][28][31][36].