银河期货棉花、棉纱日报-20251016

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts are presented, including CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts [3]. - The spot prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn products are provided, such as CCIndex3128B, CY IndexC32S, Cot A, etc. [3]. - The price differences between different contracts and varieties are shown, including cotton inter - period spreads, cotton yarn inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - In 2025, China's cotton planting area is 44.823 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The expected total output is 7.278 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, with an upward adjustment of 62,000 tons from the previous period. Xinjiang's output is 6.972 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1% [6]. - As of September 30, 2025, the national cotton picking progress is 5.1%, 0.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the delivery progress is 1.8%, 0.3 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the average purchase price of cottonseed by cotton farmers is 6.3 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% [6]. - The spot price of new cotton in inland warehouses for the 2025/26 season is temporarily stable. The sales basis of a large number of 2025/26 Aksu hand - picked 3130/30B/less than 1.5% impurity is around CF01 + 1800 for inland self - pick - up [6]. Trading Logic - During the festival, as new cotton enters the acquisition stage, the market focus shifts to the opening price of new cotton. This year, the output of Xinjiang cotton is high, and the enthusiasm of ginning factories for acquisition is average. There is no large - scale scramble for acquisition. The expected selling hedging pressure on the futures market will increase as new cotton is massively listed. The peak season demand in the market is average, and its boosting effect on the futures market is limited [7]. Trading Strategy - For the single - side strategy, it is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a range - bound pattern, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to fluctuate [8]. - For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - For the options strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Affected by positive domestic macro - policy signals and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, Zhengzhou cotton has slightly recovered in a volatile manner. The price of pure cotton yarn is generally stable, with some manufacturers offering price promotions. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and the inventory of spinning mills has increased. The impact of the implementation of favorable policies and the easing of Sino - US trade relations on downstream demand needs to be further monitored [8]. - The overall trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market is light, with stable quotations. Most weaving factories still report that orders in October are discontinuous, and they remain cautious about the future. Both finished product inventory and raw material inventory are maintained according to the September strategy. There is no improvement in export orders [10]. Group 3: Options - The implied volatilities of CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC are 9.3%, 10.9%, and 13.9% respectively. The 120 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.4519, slightly lower than the previous day [11]. - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is 0.7661, and the volume PCR is 0.8549. The trading volumes of both call and put options have increased [12]. - The options strategy is to wait and see [8][13] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts, such as the 1% tariff - based price difference between domestic and international cotton markets, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the price difference between CY05 and CF05, and the price difference between CY01 and CF01 [14][15][16]