银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251016

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an egg daily report dated October 16, 2025, released by the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product Research and Development [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3175, down 29 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3342, down 7; JD09 closed at 3863, down 7 [3] - The 01 - 05 spread closed at -167, down 22; the 05 - 09 spread remained unchanged at -521; the 09 - 01 spread closed at 688, up 22 [3] - Ratios like 01 egg/corn and 01 egg/soybean meal decreased slightly [3] Spot Market - The average price in the main production areas was 2.82 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.05 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin [3][6] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.21 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin [3][8] Profit Calculation - The profit per chicken was -1.17 yuan, an increase of 4.64 yuan from the previous day [3] - Feed prices such as corn and soybean meal decreased slightly [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - In September, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month, higher than expected. The monthly hatch of laying - hen chicks in sample enterprises was 39.2 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14% [7] - From October 2025 to January 2026, the estimated laying - hen inventory is approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7] - In the week of October 2, the number of culled chickens in the main production areas was 20.12 million, an increase of 3% from the previous week. The average culling age was 500 days, an increase of 2 days [7] - As of the week of October 9, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7179 tons, a decrease of 5.8% from the previous week [8] - As of the week of October 9, the average weekly inventory in the production and circulation links increased by 0.24 days and 0.2 days respectively [8] - As of October 2, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.4 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.3 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 3, the expected profit of laying - hen farming was 3.3 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - The supply of laying hens remains high, while the demand is generally weak. In the short term, egg prices are likely to be weak, and near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, consider closing out previous short positions to take profits [10] - For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10]