Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. In the short - term, the bond market lacks catalytic factors. Although the bond market is not significantly affected by the A - share market, it also lacks momentum. The trading of treasury bond futures should be based on a volatile mindset. Holders of long positions at low levels can hold a small amount, and those with empty positions should wait for price drops to build positions [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Performance - On Thursday, treasury bond futures fluctuated. T and TL closed up, while TF and TS closed down. Except for the relatively large decline in ultra - long bond yields, other bond yields fluctuated narrowly. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.31%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 236 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan [1]. - China's new social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, the M1 - M2 gap reached a new high this year. In September, the year - on - year decline in CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3% [2]. b) Market Sentiment and Trading Strategy - The A - share market had a shrinking - volume fluctuation today. Although the broader market closed up, the number of falling stocks was more than that of rising stocks, and market sentiment was cautious. The bond market was not greatly affected but lacked momentum, and the trading volume of treasury bond futures varieties decreased significantly. In the short - term, there are no catalytic factors in the market. Even if treasury bond futures cannot break through upwards, the downward fall space is also limited. Traders should adopt a volatile trading strategy. Those with long positions at low levels can hold a small amount, and those with empty positions should wait for price drops to build positions [3]. c) Data Comparison | Contract | Closing Price on 2025 - 10 - 16 | Closing Price on 2025 - 10 - 15 | Price Change | Position on 2025 - 10 - 16 | Position on 2025 - 10 - 15 | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.368 | 102.372 | - 0.004 | 74,561 | 74,012 | 549 | | TF2512 | 105.705 | 105.715 | - 0.01 | 158,704 | 157,295 | 1409 | | T2512 | 108.16 | 108.1 | 0.06 | 261,675 | 256,645 | 5030 | | TL2512 | 115.02 | 114.48 | 0.54 | 182,946 | 178,318 | 4628 | | Contract | Basis (CTD) on 2025 - 10 - 16 | Basis (CTD) on 2025 - 10 - 15 | Basis Change | Main Contract Trading Volume on 2025 - 10 - 16 | Main Contract Trading Volume on 2025 - 10 - 15 | Trading Volume Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | - 0.0216 | - 0.0312 | 0.0096 | 26,753 | 24,518 | 2235 | | TF | - 0.0228 | - 0.0497 | 0.0269 | 42,876 | 47,109 | - 4233 | | T | 0.0489 | 0.1258 | - 0.0769 | 62,951 | 89,364 | - 26413 | | TL | 0.2778 | - 0.0129 | 0.2907 | 110,395 | 122,948 | - 12553 | [4]
国债期货日报-20251016
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-16 10:32