2025年9月物价数据点评：价格双双改善

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a reduction of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[11] - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline, making it the primary factor affecting the CPI[12] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.0%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points, indicating stable demand[14] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in September 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[13] - PPI remained stable month-on-month, showing no change, while the year-on-year decline was influenced by a low base from the previous year[19] - Key industries such as coal processing and black metal smelting saw a reduction in their negative impact on PPI, decreasing by approximately 0.34 percentage points compared to the previous month[21] Group 3: Policy Implications - The low CPI and PPI levels create room for policy adjustments, suggesting the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support economic recovery[30] - The report emphasizes the importance of timely and effective policy measures to enhance economic momentum and fully leverage policy effects[30] Group 4: Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-US policies[31]