南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driving logic for lithium carbonate futures prices in the next month will focus on the resumption of production on the supply side and restocking on the demand side. The supply of lithium salts will increase due to the capacity release of salt lakes in October, and if the resumption of production at "Jianxiaowo" exceeds market expectations, it will expand the supply scale and push the futures price into a weakening and fluctuating channel. On the demand side, the demand from downstream lithium battery material enterprises is expected to maintain a month - on - month growth trend before the end of the year, which may drive the spot procurement demand for lithium salts and provide a phased support for futures prices. Overall, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the lithium carbonate market. Positive factors include the policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Energy Administration to support the new energy industry, which may extend the peak season to the end of the year, and the export control measures on lithium batteries and related materials that may trigger a short - term rush to export. Negative factors include the planned resumption of production at the "Jianxiaowo" lithium mine in November and the pressure from concentrated warehouse receipt cancellations in November [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - Price and Volatility Forecast: The strong support level for the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 68,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.5% and a historical percentile of 16.3% over three years [2]. - Futures Contract Data: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 74,940 yuan/ton, up 2,220 yuan (3.05%) daily and 1,600 yuan (2.18%) weekly. The trading volume is 268,890 lots, up 43,652 lots (19.38%) daily but down 92,203 lots (- 25.53%) weekly. The open interest is 177,951 lots, down 10,572 lots (- 5.61%) daily and 51,071 lots (- 22.30%) weekly. Similar data are provided for the weighted contract and various spreads [8]. - Seasonal Charts: Seasonal charts for month - to - month spreads (e.g., LC11 - 12, LC11 - 01, LC01 - 05) and historical volatility, implied volatility, and option open - interest PCR are presented [10][13] 3.2 Spot Data - Lithium Ore Prices: The average daily prices of various lithium ores, including lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone, are reported, along with their daily and weekly changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,755 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (1.74%) daily but down 80 yuan (- 4.36%) weekly [19]. - Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices: The average daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are given, showing slight declines in most cases. For instance, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,750 yuan/ton, with no daily change but a weekly decline of 550 yuan (- 0.77%) [22]. - Price Spreads: The spreads between different types of lithium products, such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, are analyzed. The current value of the battery - grade minus industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread is 2,250 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change [25]. - Downstream Product Prices: The average daily prices of downstream products like lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes are reported, with some products showing price increases. For example, the average price of ternary material 523 (consumer - type) is 128,925 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (3%) [28]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Basis: The basis of the lithium carbonate main - continuous contract and brand - specific basis quotes are presented. For example, the basis quote for Tianqi Lithium (LI2CO3≥99.8%) in the LC2507 contract is 300 yuan/ton [29][30]. - Warehouse Receipts: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 30,456 lots, a decrease of 2,620 lots from the previous day. The quantity of warehouse receipts at different warehouses/branches is also provided [33]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production profit from purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O:2.5%), import profit, and theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate are analyzed through charts [34].