橡胶甲醇原油：偏多情绪回暖，能化震荡企稳

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the weak supply - demand structure and weak macro - expectations [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain a stable and volatile trend as the supply - side expectations change and previous negative factors are digested [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 may maintain a weak and volatile trend due to systemic risks, OPEC+ production increase, and the possible end of the Israel - Palestine conflict [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Rubber: As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 45.6 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased due to holiday shutdowns. In September 2025, the logistics industry prosperity index and new order index increased, and the heavy - truck market sales increased significantly [8][9]. - Methanol: As of the week of October 10, 2025, the domestic methanol average operating rate was 80.38%, and the weekly output increased. The operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, etc., changed slightly. The inventory in ports increased, while the inland inventory decreased [10][11][12]. - Crude Oil: As of the week of October 10, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US decreased. The US crude oil daily output, commercial inventory, and strategic reserve inventory changed. The international crude oil futures price declined, and the net long positions of WTI and Brent decreased [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rubber | 14250 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 14900 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | - 650 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2325 yuan/ton | - 2 yuan/ton | 2319 yuan/ton | +21 yuan/ton | +6 yuan/ton | - 21 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 421.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 445.9 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | - 24.1 yuan/barrel | +0 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Relevant Charts - Rubber: There are charts of rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, etc. [17][19][21][25] - Methanol: There are charts of methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, etc. [30][32][36] - Crude Oil: There are charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, etc. [43][45][49]