板块观点汇总品种中期结构短期结构原油小时周期策略：能化部分品种反弹修复，未过压力下行未改-20251016

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, indicating that most products are under downward pressure, with short - term macro - driving factors and long - term fundamental factors such as supply - demand imbalances and high inventory contributing to the bearish trend. Although some products have short - term technical rebounds, the overall downward trend remains unchanged [1][2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: Friday night's sharp decline was due to Trump's new tariff threat, with short - term macro - driving factors accelerating the downward movement. Fundamentally, OPEC+ production increase and the fourth - quarter demand off - season led to increased supply and decreased demand. Even if there is a technical repair, the amplitude may be limited [1][2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day repaired the downward slope to some extent. The upper short - term pressure level is at 456. The strategy is to hold short positions [2]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: Short - term macro - driving factors put pressure on the market, but less than on crude oil. In late October, although there are many plant maintenance plans, new devices are also put into production. High supply remains difficult to decline significantly, and high inventory and low downstream start - up rates lead to a downward - driven fundamental situation [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day was a repair action, but the hourly - level downward trend remained unchanged. The upper short - term pressure level is at 6860. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions at the hourly - level and pay attention to position transfer near the contract change [5]. Rubber - Logic: Short - term macro - driving factors put pressure on the market, but less than on crude oil. After the typhoon disturbance, the seasonal decline in tire start - up rates in the downstream demand side exceeded expectations, and rubber supply is likely to increase. High inventory pressure leads to a bearish driving force [7]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day continued the repair action, but the hourly - level downward trend remained unchanged. The upper short - term pressure level is at 15450. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level, with the stop - profit reference at 15450 [7]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The main driving factor is the cost - end butadiene. From October to December, although there are planned maintenance of Zhenhai Phase II devices, the output of new butadiene from Jilin Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical will be gradually released, increasing supply pressure. Short - term macro - driving factors also lead to a downward trend [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day was a repair action, but the downward structure remained unchanged. The upper short - term pressure level is at 11300. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level, with the stop - profit reference at 11300 [12]. PX - Logic: The supply - demand situation continues to weaken slightly, and the main driving factor is the cost - end crude oil [13]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day was a repair action, but the hourly - level downward trend remained unchanged. After the contract change, the upper short - term pressure level for the 01 contract is at 6460 - 6480. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level, with the stop - profit reference at 6460 - 6480 [16]. PTA - Logic: The supply - demand situation continues to weaken slightly, and the main driving factor is the cost - end crude oil [17]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day did not change the downward structure. The upper short - term pressure level is at 4530. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level established last night, with the stop - profit reference at 4530 [17]. PP - Logic: Short - term macro - driving factors bring some pressure. The high - supply pattern remains unchanged, and the downstream demand peak season has not led to significant inventory reduction. The supply - demand improvement expectation has not been fulfilled. More attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic due to the decline in crude oil prices [22]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day continued the downward structure, and the short - term pressure level moved down to 6740. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good re - entry point, so continue to wait and see [22]. Methanol - Logic: Short - term macro - driving factors have some pressure. Currently, there is high inventory pressure at methanol ports. Attention should be paid to the seasonal decline in the start - up rate of Iranian methanol devices. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, it can be used as a long - position hedge. Unilateral trading still needs to pay attention to the time of production reduction of Iranian devices [24]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. The position - reduction rebound on the day did not break through the pressure and did not change the downward structure. The upper short - term pressure level is at 2350. The strategy is to cautiously hold the remaining short positions at the hourly - level, with the hourly - line 2350 as the final stop - profit level. For the hedging strategy, methanol can be used as a long - position allocation after breaking through the pressure [27]. PVC - Logic: Short - term macro - impacts are bearish, but the actual impact on PVC is not significant. The supply - demand situation remains weak. High - supply pressure persists, and both domestic demand and exports are under pressure due to the real - estate downturn and India's anti - dumping decision. Inventory has continuously increased to the highest level in the same period, with high - supply, weak - demand, and high - inventory pressure remaining [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day did not change the downward structure. The upper short - term pressure level is at 4800. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level [29]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Short - term macro - driving factors are bearish. The supply - demand situation has not improved, and supply pressure is increasing with capacity expansion. Short - term port inventory has started to accumulate, and the previous low - inventory support is gone [31]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day was a repair action. The upper short - term pressure level is at 4135. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level [31]. Plastic - Logic: The supply - demand change is limited. Attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic due to the decline in crude oil prices [35]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day did not change the downward structure. The upper short - term pressure level is at 7090. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions at the hourly - level [35]. Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern has intensified. The demand side of glass is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The fundamental downward - driving force remains unchanged. Coupled with the return of the macro - downward driving force on Friday night, the downward pressure on the soda ash market continues [36]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day did not change the downward structure, and the upper short - term pressure level moved down to 1260. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions at the hourly - level [36]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Some devices in East and North China have maintenance plans, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The non - aluminum downstream demand has resumed after the holiday, and the inventory pressure has been alleviated. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction rhythm of liquid caustic soda. The current situation is still weak, but the valuation is low, so it is not advisable to chase short positions [38]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day did not change the downward structure, and the upper short - term pressure level is at 2490. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good re - entry point, so temporarily wait and see [38].