半导体行业月报：原厂陆续发布涨价函，存储器周期继续上行-20251016

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the semiconductor industry [2]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a continued upward cycle, driven by strong demand for AI computing hardware and increasing capital expenditures from major cloud service providers [9][32]. - In September 2025, the domestic semiconductor industry saw a significant increase of 13.86%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 3.20% [14]. - Global semiconductor sales continued to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 21.7% in August 2025, marking 22 consecutive months of growth [25][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In September 2025, the semiconductor sector (CITIC) rose by 13.86%, with integrated circuits up by 11.86% and semiconductor equipment up by 27.27% [14][16]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 12.36% in September 2025, significantly outperforming the Nasdaq 100, which rose by 5.40% [22][24]. 2. Sales Growth - Global semiconductor sales reached approximately $64.9 billion in August 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 21.7% and a month-on-month increase of 4.4% [25]. - The Chinese semiconductor market achieved sales of $17.63 billion in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [26]. 3. Price Trends - The prices of DRAM and NAND Flash continued to rise, with DRAM prices expected to increase by 13-18% in Q4 2025 [9][32]. - Major storage manufacturers, including SanDisk, Micron, and Samsung, have announced price increases for memory products due to rising demand [9]. 4. Capital Expenditure - Major North American cloud service providers, including Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, reported a 69% year-on-year increase in capital expenditures in Q2 2025 [9]. - Domestic internet companies, such as Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent, saw a 168% increase in capital expenditures in the same period [9]. 5. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the semiconductor market, with a projected global sales increase of 11.2% in 2025, reaching approximately $700.9 billion [27]. - The demand for AI computing infrastructure is expected to drive significant growth in the semiconductor sector, particularly in memory and logic markets [27].