有色金属日报-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a daily analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment, and gives corresponding price trend forecasts for each metal [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday, SHFE copper fluctuated around 85,000 yuan. SMM spot copper was reported at 85,175 yuan, with a premium of 60 yuan in Shanghai. Social inventory increased by 5,500 tons to 177,500 tons this week [2] - The US government shutdown led to a lack of physical indicators. The Fed's Beige Book showed weakening consumer spending and labor force, increasing the probability of interest rate cuts. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - SHFE aluminum rebounded today, with spot aluminum in East China at par. In the off - season, the apparent consumption of aluminum was basically flat year - on - year. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased by 23,000 tons and 5,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. Since the National Day, inventory performance has been neutral. Macro sentiment is volatile, and SHFE aluminum will test the previous high resistance in the short term [3] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of SHFE aluminum. The Baotai spot price is 20,600 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increases enterprise costs. However, the industry inventory is at a high level, and the SHFE warehouse receipts reach 43,000 tons. Whether the price difference with SHFE aluminum can continue to narrow remains to be seen [3] - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and industry inventory continues to rise. There is an obvious supply surplus, and the spot index in various regions continues to decline at a rate of about 10 yuan per day. The average cost in Shanxi and Henan in September was around 3,000 yuan. The current index price is not enough to trigger cash - loss production cuts in Shanxi and Henan but is approaching it. Alumina is mainly in a weak operation [3] Zinc - Although the spot export window has briefly opened, there has been no substantial large - scale export of zinc ingots. LME zinc inventory is at a low level of 38,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month premium is at a high level of $139.83/ton. Overseas supply is tight, but terminal consumption has not improved significantly, and downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is insufficient. LME zinc is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - Overseas smelter profits have recovered, and overseas zinc ingot supply may increase in the fourth quarter. The hidden inventory cannot be verified for the time being. Focus on tracking changes in LME zinc inventory. Some smelters in Gansu and Guangxi in China plan to conduct maintenance, and the room for further expansion of the domestic - foreign price difference is limited. The fundamentals are weak at home and strong abroad, and the export window is about to open. SHFE zinc is expected to consolidate at a low level, LME zinc will fluctuate at a high level, and the SHFE - LME ratio will fluctuate widely around the opening of the export window [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel is in a weak operation, and market trading is light. After the interest rate cut, the tendency of long - position holders to take profits is prominent. Sino - US frictions have increased uncertainty, and the macro - environment is gradually moving towards lower risk appetite [7] - The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak. During the traditional peak consumption season, downstream demand recovery is limited, market transactions are light, and social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is 953 yuan per nickel point. Pure nickel inventory has increased by nearly 3,000 tons to 43,700 tons, nickel - iron inventory has increased by 600 tons to 29,200 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 3,400 tons to 909,000 tons. SHFE nickel's bullish factors are exhausted, and nickel prices are in a weak operation with a downward - biased center [7] Tin - SHFE tin fluctuated and closed up at the 280,000 - yuan level, and spot tin was reported at 281,200 yuan. The market has digested the Indonesian theme, and Indonesia's tin ingot exports rebounded to 484 tons in September. Hold short positions at high levels [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded, and market trading was light. Sino - US frictions have a short - term impact on market risk appetite. The overall inventory level of lithium carbonate is still high, and there may be a callback risk in the short term. The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 134,800 tons. Smelter inventory increased by 1,250 tons to 35,000 tons, downstream inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 60,000 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 2,200 tons to 40,000 tons. Technically, lithium carbonate is in a weak operation, waiting for clarity [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher and did not follow the strong linkage of coking coal. The spot price continued to be under pressure, and the price of the East China 553 specification decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The release of the复产 capacity in Xinjiang in September and the production increase of large enterprises have increased the risk of inventory accumulation. Large - scale production cuts are expected to start in the southwest at the end of October, and the cost side has strong support. The futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to rise, mainly driven by the expectation of photovoltaic capacity control policies. The fundamentals do not provide effective support for the time being, and the spot price remains stable. The output in October may continue to grow beyond expectations, and the risk of inventory accumulation under high inventory has increased. After the market, there were rumors about recent capacity policies, which still need to be clarified. The market may have a callback risk due to this, and it is recommended to strictly control positions [11]