银行业“量价质”跟踪（十九）：政府融资放缓，存款继续活化

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [24]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that the social financing scale increased by 8.7% year-on-year as of the end of September, with RMB loans growing by 6.4% year-on-year [4]. - The report highlights a structural effect of loan interest subsidy policies, with government financing slowing down. New RMB loans in September amounted to 1.608 trillion yuan, a decrease of 366.2 billion yuan year-on-year [4]. - The focus of credit is shifting towards structural optimization, with new policy tools expected to support credit in Q4, particularly in technology innovation and consumption infrastructure [4]. - Deposit growth is seasonal, with M2 and M1 increasing by 8.4% and 7.2% year-on-year, respectively. The report notes a significant improvement in the growth rate of M1 [4]. - Loan interest rates remained stable, with the average interest rate for new corporate loans and personal housing loans at approximately 3.1%, indicating reduced pressure on interest margins [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Data - As of September, the social financing scale stock grew by 8.7% year-on-year, while RMB loans increased by 6.4% [4]. - The average interest rate for new corporate loans and personal housing loans was stable at 3.1%, reflecting a decrease of 40 basis points and 25 basis points year-on-year, respectively [4]. Credit and Loans - New RMB loans in September were 1.608 trillion yuan, with a notable decrease in corporate medium and long-term loans, indicating weak financing demand from the real economy [4]. - Short-term loans for enterprises increased by 710 billion yuan year-on-year, driven by a slight recovery in manufacturing and the implementation of subsidy policies [4]. Deposits and Monetary Supply - M2 and M1 growth rates were 8.4% and 7.2%, respectively, with M1 showing a recovery compared to previous months [4]. - The report indicates that the seasonal return of deposits and the activation of deposits are influenced by several factors, including changes in exchange rate expectations and fiscal spending [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the impact of new policy tools in Q4, which are expected to enhance credit support for small and micro enterprises, technology innovation, and consumption [4]. - The overall asset quality is expected to remain stable, with the banking sector showing signs of recovery in market risk appetite [4].