国投期货化工日报-20251016

Summary of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish (★★★): Styrene [1] - Bullish (★★☆): Plastics [1] - Bullish (★☆☆): Propylene, Polypropylene, PVC, Bottle Chip [1] - Neutral (☆☆☆): PX, PTA, Short Fiber, Soda Ash, Caustic Soda [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with supply - demand imbalances and various influencing factors such as geopolitical events, trade conflicts, and seasonal demand changes. Different chemical products have different trends, with some facing downward pressure due to oversupply and weak demand, while others may have short - term support or upward trends due to factors like reduced production or increased demand [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated below the 5 - day moving average. Demand weakened again as downstream factories were reluctant to chase price increases. The trading atmosphere was average [2]. - PE supply pressure increased, and terminal demand was limited. PP had more maintenance devices, but supply remained abundant, and demand support was insufficient [2]. Polyester - PX price rebounded, driving up downstream products. PX supply had a short - term contraction, while PTA supply was expected to increase. Overall, PTA supply - demand was expected to be weak. PX might improve in the short term, but both PX and PTA were expected to be weak in the medium term [3]. - EG domestic operation declined slightly, and ports continued to accumulate inventory. Its price was at the bottom of the range. The impact of Sino - US trade tensions on hexanediol was positive [3]. - Short fiber followed the raw material rebound. New capacity was limited, and demand improved. However, there was an expectation of demand decline as the weather turned cold, and over - capacity was a long - term pressure [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rebounded, but imports and weak demand expectations dragged down the market. - Styrene supply was sufficient, and new device plans might increase pressure. Terminal demand was worried about being insufficient due to trade conflicts [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol import supply and high - inventory logic were affected by geopolitical factors. Attention should be paid to port inventory and trade disputes [6]. - Urea was in a weak situation with high supply and weak demand. Although there was an expectation of demand increase, overall support was insufficient [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed an oscillating trend. Supply was high, and demand was weak. Exports were under pressure due to trade conflicts, and it might oscillate weakly [7]. - Caustic soda was oscillating strongly. Inventory decreased, and demand improved. The decline of futures price was expected to be limited [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continued to accumulate inventory. Supply was high, and demand increase was limited. The oversupply pattern remained, and it was advisable to short on rebounds [8]. - Glass futures rose at the end due to news. Inventory was high, and demand was mainly for rigid needs. Futures price might rise due to supply - side news [8].