能源日报-20251016

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: White star, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, showing a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market is under pressure due to the unresolved Sino - US trade game and the expected increase in market looseness in the fourth quarter. However, geopolitical factors may bring risk premiums [1]. - The fuel oil market fluctuates with crude oil due to geopolitical news. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support but medium - term pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation [1]. - The asphalt supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern, with a small inventory build - up expected by the end of 2025, and the support from fundamentals is expected to weaken in the second half of Q4 [2]. - The LPG main contract has risen, with changes in Saudi CP forecasts, US propane exports, and inventory levels. The demand in the traditional peak season is expected to increase but has not significantly improved yet [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fluctuated, and the SC11 contract rose 0.02%. The Sino - US trade game and the expected market looseness in the fourth quarter put pressure on the oil market. Last week, US API crude oil inventories increased by 7.36 million barrels more than expected. The medium - term bearish view on crude oil remains unchanged, but geopolitical factors may increase risk premiums [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Multiple geopolitical news has affected the market, causing fuel oil to fluctuate with crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support from European port strikes and Russian refinery attacks, but faces medium - term pressure due to the end of the Middle East power - generation and refining peak season and potential suppression of shipping fuel demand. Strategies can focus on shorting high - sulfur cracking spreads and expanding the high - low sulfur spread after geopolitical situations become clear. Low - sulfur fuel oil is suppressed by abundant overseas supply and loose domestic quotas, with a weak fundamental situation [1]. Asphalt - The latest data shows that factory and social inventories have decreased compared to the beginning of the week, and commercial inventories have decreased by 40,000 tons compared to last week. The asphalt supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern, with a small inventory build - up expected by the end of 2025. The support from fundamentals is expected to weaken in the second half of Q4. The cost increase has driven the BU futures price up, but the spot price is still weak, and the basis has weakened [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract rose about 3% today. Saudi's latest November CP forecast has increased the propane and butane prices. US propane exports have decreased, and the arrival volume is low. Refinery inventories have slightly increased, and port inventories have decreased. In the traditional peak season, the demand for combustion is expected to increase, but the actual demand has not significantly improved. The futures price has gradually recovered from the low level [2].