南华原油风险管理日报-20251016

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is significantly influenced by the game between macro - sentiment and its own supply - demand. Affected by macro - sentiment, the risk - aversion sentiment has increased, leading to a decline in multiple assets. Although the market has rebounded, crude oil has shown the weakest performance and a new downward trend has initially formed. Currently, crude oil has not completed its technical repair, and it may continue to adjust in the short term with limited upside potential [1]. - Geopolitical support has weakened, and the fundamental pressure of weakening demand and increasing supply has become prominent. The market balance has tilted towards bearish factors. Geopolitical disturbances are difficult to change the weak general trend. Brent crude oil has reached the annual low of $60 - 65, and after the repair, there is a risk of testing the $60 support level. In the future, it is likely to remain weak, and the downward risk remains the focus of attention [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and go short on rallies [6]. - Arbitrage: The monthly spread is weak [6]. 3.2 Logic Combing 3.2.1 Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical factors are the core variables affecting short - term fluctuations in crude oil but cannot reverse the general trend. The support logic has changed. After the cease - fire in Gaza, geopolitical support has weakened, and combined with fundamental pressure, it has directly led to a breakdown in crude oil prices. New geopolitical news can cause short - term rebounds, but its influence has decreased marginally [9]. - Compared with before the Gaza cease - fire, the current geopolitical factors have significantly reduced their support for crude oil, mainly acting as short - term disturbance factors to ease the decline and promote rebound adjustments [9]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Factors - The core logic of the crude oil market is still dominated by fundamentals, and the balance between long and short has clearly tilted towards bearish factors. There is no substantial positive support, and the market shows a combination of supply - side pressure and demand - side weakness [10]. - As the overall fluctuation center of crude oil has moved down, the fundamentals have formed a "new price suppression" on the market. Brent crude oil has fallen to the annual low range of $60 - 65, and the effectiveness of the $60 support level needs to be closely monitored [10]. 3.2.3 Macro and Market Sentiment - The double impact of risk - aversion sentiment: Although the overnight financial market sentiment was basically stable (US stocks rebounded), gold continued to rise and hit a record high, and the panic index has significantly increased recently, indicating that the "potential risk - aversion demand" in the market persists, which directly exerts emotional pressure on risk assets such as crude oil [11]. - Commodity market differentiation: The performance of the commodity market represented by crude oil and copper has been continuously under pressure, showing a divergence from the trends of US stocks and gold, reflecting that the fundamental pressure of crude oil itself is much greater than the short - term boost brought by macro - sentiment [11]. 3.3 Related Information - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 10 was 7.36 million barrels, with an expected value of 233,000 barrels and a previous value of 2.78 million barrels [12]. - US President Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Modi has promised to stop buying oil from Russia, which may resolve the core issue of diplomatic and trade differences between Washington and New Delhi [12]. - The US Senate rejected the government funding bill proposed by the Republicans, and there is currently no clear solution to the government shutdown [12]. - As of the week ending October 13, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE was 17.812 million barrels, an increase of 1.478 million barrels from the previous week [12]. 3.4 Crude Oil Market Data 3.4.1 Crude Oil Monthly Spread Tracking - The weekly and monthly spreads of most crude oil varieties have changed significantly. For example, the Brent crude oil monthly spread (01 - 03) has decreased by 46.75% week - on - week and 51.76% month - on - month [4]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil Domestic and Foreign Arbitrage - Various arbitrage indicators and spread indicators have shown different degrees of change. For example, the Brent M + 2 has decreased by 4.20% week - on - week and 8.8% month - on - month [5].