宏观数据观察：东海观察9月信贷需求企稳，政府融资持续发力

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - China's M2 declined in September and was lower than expected, mainly due to a short - term sharp decrease in non - bank deposits. The overall M2 remained at a reasonable level, and the monetary policy continued to be loose. The new social financing decreased slightly year - on - year, mainly due to the decline in fiscal financing and the decrease in the financing demand of the household and enterprise sectors. The transmission from loose money to loose credit continued. Given the existing external shock risks and the stable domestic economic growth, the monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose. With fiscal efforts and the easing of external shocks, the financing demand of enterprises, households, and the government is expected to gradually recover, and the transmission from loose money to loose credit is expected to accelerate. In the short term, financial data has little impact on domestic risk assets and the RMB exchange rate, while in the long - term, the process of loose credit is expected to speed up as domestic support policies are implemented and take effect [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content M2 Situation - In September, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, with an expected 8.5% and a previous value of 8.8%. The growth rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month and increased by 1.6 percentage points from the same period last year. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 declined and was lower than expected because of the large increase in enterprise and household deposits and the significant decrease in non - bank deposits due to the return of wealth management funds to the balance sheet. The overall money supply maintained reasonable growth. M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous month and higher than the expected 6.1%, reflecting the improvement of enterprise profits and the continuous current - account of household and enterprise deposits. M0 increased by 11.5% year - on - year, down 0.2%. With M1 rising and M2 remaining high, the overall capital supply remained stable, and the monetary policy continued to be loose. Due to the stable domestic economic growth and existing external shock risks, the monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose. With the acceleration of debt resolution, the implementation of fiscal and real - estate policies, and the short - term improvement of the real - estate market, the demand for credit creation will pick up, and M2 is expected to rise in the short term [1][2]. New RMB Loans - In September, new RMB loans were 129 billion yuan, with an expected 1460 billion yuan and a previous value of 59 billion yuan, 30 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The new loans in September were less than the same period last year and lower than market expectations, mainly due to the decline in bill financing and household loans. New household short - term loans were 14.21 billion yuan, 12.79 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and new household long - term loans were 25 billion yuan, 2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The decline in household loans may reflect the weak income expectations of households. The long - term loans were moderately boosted by the optimized real - estate demand policies in first - tier cities. New enterprise loans were 122 billion yuan, 27 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Short - term and long - term loans were 71 billion and 91 billion yuan respectively, with short - term loans increasing by 25 billion yuan and long - term loans decreasing by 5 billion yuan year - on - year, partly affected by local governments' repayment of enterprise arrears. The new bill financing was - 40.26 billion yuan, 47.12 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and off - balance - sheet bills increased year - on - year, possibly reflecting the decline in banks' bill - padding demand at the end of the quarter [1][3][4]. Social Financing Scale - In September, the increment of the social financing scale was 353.37 billion yuan, with an expected 335 billion yuan and a previous value of 256.68 billion yuan, 22.98 billion yuan less than the same period last year. At the end of September, the stock of the social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. The transmission from loose money to loose credit continued. In terms of the structure of new social financing, the credit financing demand of the real economy decreased year - on - year, with household credit demand picking up and enterprise credit decreasing. Enterprise bond financing increased, government bond issuance continued to accelerate, and non - standard financing demand rose. New credit in September was 160.8 billion yuan, 36.62 billion yuan less than the same period last year, mainly related to the decline in the bill financing demand of households and real - economy enterprises. Non - standard assets such as trust loans, entrusted loans, and bank acceptances not yet discounted increased by 35.79 billion yuan in total, 18.69 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Enterprise bond financing increased by 1.05 billion yuan, 20.31 billion yuan more than the same period last year, mainly supported by the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds and private enterprise bonds. Government bond net financing was 118.86 billion yuan, 34.71 billion yuan less than the same period last year, mainly due to the large - scale issuance of government bonds in the same period last year. Overall, the financing demand of the real - economy sector decreased year - on - year. In the short - and medium - term, due to the negative impact of tariffs, the government will continue to expand financing. The enterprise sector's financing demand is expected to improve gradually in the long - term, and the household sector's financing demand is expected to continue the slow recovery trend. Although the current social financing demand has declined slightly year - on - year in the short term, the process of loose credit is expected to accelerate in the long - term as the domestic monetary policy continues to be loose and support policies are further strengthened and implemented [1][5].