贵金属日评：中美贸易的不确定性或支撑贵金属价格-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade, concerns about the weakening US employment market, the Fed's potential future interest - rate cuts and possible halt to balance - sheet reduction, the unresolved US federal government shutdown crisis, uncertainties about mutual tariff imposition between China and the US, the expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, geopolitical risks in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries will support precious metal prices in the medium and long term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data 3.1.1 Gold - Shanghai Gold: The closing price was 958.50 yuan/gram, with a change of 18.55 yuan compared to a previous period; trading volume was 55,176.00, and the position volume was 234,136.00 [1]. - Spot Shanghai Gold T + D: The trading volume was 55,176.00, and the position volume was 234,136.00 [1]. - COMEX Gold Futures: The closing price was 4007.90, the trading volume was 301,947.00, and the position volume was 370,287.00; inventory was 39,285,218.72 troy ounces [1]. - London Gold Spot: The price was 4204.60 US dollars/ounce; SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1013.15, and iShare Gold ETF holdings were 487.42 [1]. 3.1.2 Silver - Shanghai Silver: The closing price was 11,961.00 yuan/ten grams, the trading volume was 2,421,975.00, and the position volume was 10,117.00; inventory was 1,030,429.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - Spot Shanghai Silver T + D: The trading volume was 1,699,552.00, and the position volume was 452,782.00 [1]. - COMEX Silver Futures: The closing price was 52.53, the trading volume was 21,002.00, and the position volume was 126,571.00; inventory was 515,632,550.48 troy ounces [1]. - London Silver Spot: The price was 52.59 US dollars/ounce; US iShare Silver ETF holdings were 15,422.61 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The US court temporarily prohibited Trump from large - scale layoffs during the government shutdown, and earlier, the White House "steward" said that government layoffs during the shutdown could exceed 10,000. Trump - appointed Fed governor Milan said that trade uncertainties made interest - rate cuts more urgent [1]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that US economic activity had changed little since the last report in early September, tariffs had pushed up prices, and consumers had felt the impact [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - It is advisable to mainly lay out long positions after price corrections. For London Gold, pay attention to the support level around 3600 - 3800 and the resistance level around 4383 - 4778; for Shanghai Gold, the support level is around 790 - 810 and the resistance level is around 1000 - 1100. For London Silver, the support level is around 40 - 47 and the resistance level is around 57 - 68; for Shanghai Silver, the support level is around 9000 - 11000 and the resistance level is around 13000 - 14800 [1].