碳酸锂日评：低位震荡-20251016

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply and demand are both strong, the upstream inventory pressure is not significant, the expectation of lithium ore supply contraction has weakened, the downstream inventory build - up has peaked, and the demand peak may have arrived. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the situation after the Jiangxi mine end submits the output report. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: On October 15, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 225,238 lots (- 45,089), and the open interest was 188,523 lots (- 4,408). The inventory was 35,180 tons. The spreads between different contracts also showed certain changes, such as the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract being - 60 [1]. - Spot Market: The trading in the spot market was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and there were also price data for other lithium - related products such as lithium hydroxide, lithium hexafluorophosphate, etc. [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply Side: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased. The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica remained stable [1]. - Demand Side: Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In October, the production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased, and the output of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in September, the 3C shipments were average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in October [1]. 3.3 Inventory Situation The registered warehouse receipts were 33,076 (- 2,004) tons. The social inventory decreased, the smelters' inventory increased, and the downstream and other inventories decreased [1]. 3.4 Industry News The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the "Three - Year Doubling" Action Plan for the Service Capacity of Electric Vehicle Charging Facilities (2025 - 2027), aiming to achieve a doubling of charging service capacity by the end of 2027 [1].