镍与不锈钢日评：偏弱震荡-20251016

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: On October 15, the nickel market showed a weak fundamental situation with inventory pressure, but the valuation was at a low level. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1][2]. - Stainless steel: On October 15, the stainless - steel market had a loose fundamental situation, with inventory accumulation and a loosening cost support. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Nickel - Futures Prices: On October 15, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 121,010 yuan/ton, 120,900 yuan/ton, 121,330 yuan/ton, and 121,550 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 83,761 hands (-26,323), and the open interest was 68,681 hands (-4,426). LME3 - month nickel official price was 15,210 dollars/ton, up 0.10% [2]. - Spot Prices: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price was 122,300 yuan/ton. Nickel bean average price was 123,550 yuan/ton. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price was 123,500 yuan/ton. 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) average price was 121,450 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,558 tons (+1,531). LME nickel registered warehouse receipts were 240,486 tons (-240,486), and cancelled warehouse receipts were 0 tons (-6,270). The total LME nickel inventory was 246,756 tons (+3,498) [2]. - Supply and Demand: In August 2025, global refined nickel production was 323,300 tons, consumption was 273,400 tons, with a supply surplus of 49,900 tons. From January to August 2025, global refined nickel production was 2,549,400 tons, consumption was 2,244,300 tons, with a supply surplus of 305,100 tons [2]. Stainless Steel - Futures Prices: On October 15, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 12,345 yuan/ton, 12,525 yuan/ton, 12,560 yuan/ton, and 12,660 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 113,216 hands (-37,540), and the open interest was 193,490 hands (+3,239) [2]. - Spot Prices: 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price was 13,550 yuan/ton. 304/No.1 coil (Wuxi) average price was 12,500 yuan/ton. 316L/2B coil (Wuxi) average price was 25,300 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory decreased. The 300 - series social inventory last week was 619,400 tons (+33,900) [2].