螺纹钢、热卷产业风险管理日报-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current state of strong supply and weak demand in the downstream steel industry remains unchanged, with the peak season not living up to expectations. During the National Day holiday, steel consumption declined more than the same period last year, reaching the lowest level in the past five years. Iron ore production remains high, and the steel inventory accumulation rate is higher than the same period in previous years [3]. - Although the demand data of the five major steel products rebounded regularly after the holiday, it was still lower than the pre - holiday level. The output of the five major steel products decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the steel industry remained unchanged [3]. - Today, the iron ore in the furnace material end continued to fall, but the prices of coking coal and coke increased significantly. With the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd, the market still has expectations for macro - policy stimulus, leading to a slight rebound in steel prices. However, in the absence of improvement in the steel fundamentals, today's rebound is more of a rebound after a long - term decline and is driven by the coking coal and coke end, with limited rebound space [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - Price Forecast: The monthly forecast range for the 01 contract of rebar is 2900 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.60% and a volatility percentile of 16.5%. For hot - rolled coils, the range is 3100 - 3500, with a current volatility of 11.76% and a volatility percentile of 12.86% [3]. - Risk Management Strategies: - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about steel price drops, they can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs. For example, short RB2501 and HC2501 with a hedging ratio of 30% at the suggested entry intervals of 3100 - 3150 and 3280 - 3350 respectively. They can also sell call options to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the steel price rises, such as selling RB2601C3400 with a hedging ratio of 20% at 30 - 40 [3]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. For example, buy RB2601 and HC2601 with a hedging ratio of 30% at the intervals of 3000 - 3050 and 3200 - 3250 respectively. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the rebar price drops, such as selling RB2601P2900 with a hedging ratio of 20% at 35 - 45 [3]. 3.2 Market Factors Analysis - Positive Factors: The Fourth Plenary Session in October and production restriction disturbances [4]. - Negative Factors: Steel inventory accumulation beyond the seasonal norm and the increasing pressure of negative feedback [5]. 3.3 Price and Spread Data - Futures and Spot Prices: On October 16, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3049, 3102, and 3141 respectively, with daily changes of 15, 12, and 191, and weekly changes of - 47, - 57, and 121. The closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3219, 3233, and 3254 respectively, with daily changes of 7, 10, and - 356, and weekly changes of - 67, - 60, and - 116. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions also showed certain changes [5]. - Spreads: - Month - to - Month Spreads: On October 16, 2025, the rebar 01 - 05 month - to - month spread was - 53, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of 10; the rebar 10 - 01 month - to - month spread was 92, with a daily change of 176 and a weekly change of 168. The hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month - to - month spread was - 14, with a daily change of - 7 and a weekly change of - 7; the hot - rolled coil 10 - 01 month - to - month spread was 35, with a daily change of - 363 and a weekly change of - 49 [6]. - Roll - Rebar Spreads: The 01 roll - rebar spread, 05 roll - rebar spread, and 10 roll - rebar spread also had corresponding changes, and the spot roll - rebar spreads in different regions such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenyang also showed different trends [6]. - Other Spreads: The ratios of 01 rebar/01 iron ore, 05 rebar/05 iron ore, 10 rebar/09 iron ore, and the ratios of rebar to coke also had certain changes [8]. 3.4 Seasonal Data - The report also provides a large amount of seasonal data, including the seasonal data of rebar 01 contract basis (in Hangzhou Zhongtian, Beijing, etc.), hot - rolled coil 01 basis (in Zhangjiagang Shagang, etc.), iron ore 01 basis, coking coal 01 contract basis, coke 01 contract basis, rebar and hot - rolled coil month - to - month spreads, rebar and hot - rolled coil 01盘面利润, various steel product profits (including immediate and raw - material - lagged profits), spot roll - rebar spreads, hot - rolled coil export profit estimates, and warehouse receipt inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [9][11][17][20][21][25][31][34][37][50][57].