银河期货粕类日报-20251016

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is generally stable, with the futures market showing a pattern of oscillation. The domestic soybean meal market is consolidating, and the decline space is limited after significant drops. Rapeseed meal has a slight rebound, but overall changes are limited, and the fundamental pressure persists [4]. - The soybean - related market is under pressure. Without a significant tightening of the balance sheet, the price center of the soybean system is expected to decline. Rapeseed meal is expected to move in a volatile manner [5][8]. - Given the current market situation, the recommended trading strategies are to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and engage in the M11 - 1 calendar spread. For options, selling a wide - straddle structure is suggested [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Market Quotes - Futures and Spot Prices: On October 16, 2025, soybean meal futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 closed at 2907, 2742, and 2853 respectively, with changes of - 10, + 2, and 0. Rapeseed meal futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 closed at 2364, 2306, and 2395 respectively, with changes of + 7, + 8, and + 7. Spot basis and price differences also showed various changes [4]. - Price Spreads: For soybean meal, the 15 - spread was 165 (down 12 from the previous day), the 59 - spread was - 111 (up 2), and the 91 - spread was - 54 (up 10). For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread was 58 (down 1), the 59 - spread was - 89 (up 1), and the 91 - spread was 31 (unchanged). The cross - variety price spreads and spot price spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: The carry - over inventory of the old US soybean crop has been slightly adjusted upwards, with good demand fulfillment. The new crop's supply has slightly increased due to a small increase in planting area despite a slight decrease in yield per unit. South American old - crop supply is relatively loose, with expected increases in production, crushing volume, and possible increases in carry - over inventory or exports. The international soybean meal supply pressure is significant [5]. - Domestic Market: The domestic spot pressure has slightly improved but remains relatively loose. As of October 10, the soybean inventory was 765.76 million tons, an increase of 6.37% from the previous week and 14.29% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 107.91 million tons, a decrease of 9.26% from the previous week but an increase of 6.17% year - on - year. Rapeseed meal demand is gradually weakening, and the supply pressure still exists [8]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors - Sino - US communication has reduced concerns about trade conflicts, but the Madrid negotiation did not provide clear guidance on the soybean industry. With the decreasing demand for US soybeans in the long - term, the upward space for the domestic soybean meal futures market is limited [9]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - The market is oscillating. After reflecting various negative factors, the downward space is limited. The overall supply - demand situation of domestic soybean meal is relatively loose, and the price pressure of US and Brazilian soybeans is still obvious. Rapeseed meal prices lack significant fluctuations, and the price spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by macro and supply - demand factors [10]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Single - sided Trading: Stay on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: Engage in the M11 - 1 calendar spread. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle structure [11][12]. 3.6 Soybean Pressing Profits - Pressing profits vary by source and shipping date. For example, the pressing profit from Argentine soybeans in November was - 65.45 for the futures market and - 110.25 for the spot market, showing a decline compared to the previous day [12].