银河期货航运日报-20251016

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC futures market is experiencing fluctuations, with the EC2512 contract closing at 1651.1 points on October 16, down 3.37% from the previous day. Spot freight rates have shown a mixed trend, with the latest SCFI European line up 10% week - on - week, ending a 9 - week decline, while the SCFIS European line was down 1.4% week - on - week, and the decline has slowed. Shipowners have started to announce rate increases for November, and the market is closely watching the implementation of these rate hikes. The demand is seasonally declining but is expected to improve from November to December, and the supply side shows some changes in shipping capacity, especially in December. There are also risks such as the Israel - Palestine situation and potential tariff negotiations between China and the US [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Market Performance: On October 16, EC2512 closed at 1651.1 points, down 3.37% from the previous day. The latest SCFI European line on October 10 was reported at $1068/TEU, up 10% week - on - week, ending a 9 - week decline, and the SCFIS European line on Monday was 1031.8 points, down 1.4% week - on - week, with the decline in spot freight rates slowing. Shipowners such as MSK, MSC, CMA, and HPL have announced rate increases for November, with targets ranging from $1500 - $2700/FEU. Port fees have started to be levied due to China - US ship sanctions, and some ships are taking measures to avoid them [3]. - Logical Analysis: In the second half of October, some shipowners have lowered their rates, while major shipowners have issued rate increase notices for November, mostly around $2500 - $2700/FEU. The market is divided, with OA having better cargo collection and PA still facing pressure. The freight rate center of shipowners in the second half of October is expected to be higher than in the first half. The demand is seasonally declining but is expected to improve from November to December, and the shipping capacity from October to November changes little, with some ships being delayed and shipowners changing vessels. In December, the PA alliance will add three suspended ships and one new ship, and MSC will add one TBN. The Israel - Palestine negotiation is progressing, and there is a possibility of tariff negotiations between China and the US [4]. - Trading Strategy: For the unilateral strategy, the remaining long positions in EC2512 can be held, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted if the near - month contract EC2512 pulls back. For the arbitrage strategy, the 2 - 4 positive spread can continue to be held [6][7]. Industry News - Trump said that Modi assured him that India would not buy oil from Russia, but it would take a process. Trump threatened to impose trade penalties such as tariffs on Spain due to its refusal to increase defense spending to the NATO standard, and the EU responded that it would take appropriate measures [7]. - Regarding the Red Sea situation, Trump threatened to resume Israeli actions if Hamas does not abide by the cease - fire agreement. The Israeli government hopes that Hamas will fulfill its obligations and return all hostages, and the Israeli Defense Minister instructed the military to formulate a plan to "defeat Hamas" if the Gaza war resumes [8][9].