下游开工维持低位

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The urea market is currently characterized by low downstream demand despite some improvement in purchasing due to better weather. The market is expected to remain in a short - term low - level oscillation, with attention on winter storage. Although the upstream factories are holding up prices, the demand is insufficient, leading to inventory accumulation and weak market performance [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and ended up closing slightly higher. Upstream factories are trying to maintain prices, but downstream demand is low and trading is inactive. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton [1][3]. - India's RCF urea import tender on October 15 received 25 offers, with a total bid volume of about 3.7019 million tons, including 1.9532 million tons for the west coast and 1.7487 million tons for the east coast [1]. - The daily urea production is around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. Next week, more enterprises are expected to be under maintenance than resuming production, so production may slightly decrease. Demand is weak, with agricultural dealers being cautious in stockpiling, compound fertilizer factories reducing their operating rates, and other industrial demands affected by rainfall [1]. - Domestic demand is sluggish, and urea inventories in factories are accumulating at an increasing rate. Although the purchasing situation has improved with better weather, the market is still weak and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [1]. Futures Market - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1599 yuan/ton, went down during the session, and closed at 1604 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change. The trading volume was 315,491 lots, a decrease of 7,195 lots [2]. - On October 16, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,438, a decrease of 55 from the previous trading day. Among them, Heilongjiang Longxin decreased by 15 and Liaoning Fertilizer decreased by 40 [2]. - Among the top 20 long and short positions of the main contract, the long positions decreased by 2,762 lots and the short positions decreased by 4,873 lots. For example, Zhongtai Futures' net long positions decreased by 2,552 lots, and CITIC Futures' net short positions decreased by 5,911 lots [2]. Spot Market - Upstream factories are holding up prices, but downstream demand is low, and trading is inactive. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton [1][3]. Fundamental Tracking - The basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day. The basis of the January contract was - 54 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [6]. - On October 16, 2025, the national daily urea production was 194,400 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.14% [7]. - From October 10 to October 16, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 55.18%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points from the previous week [9].