Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper (沪铜): The copper market is supported by macro hedging sentiment and the expected interest - rate cut cycle. With supply tightening due to frequent disturbances at international copper mines and smelter overhauls, and demand boosted by the "Golden September and Silver October" season, the copper price is in an upward range and is expected to oscillate at a high level [9]. - Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂): The supply of lithium carbonate is steadily increasing, and the demand is in the peak season. With both supply and demand booming, the market is expected to be relatively strong during the "Golden September and Silver October" [11]. - Crude Oil: The crude oil market has weak supply - demand fundamentals due to the end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payroll data, intensified Sino - US trade frictions, OPEC+ production increase, and the resumption of oil exports from the Iraqi Kurdish region. It is recommended to view it as a weak oscillation and pay attention to the development of the Sino - US trade war [12][14]. - Asphalt: The supply of asphalt is at a relatively high level, while the demand is restricted by factors such as funds and rainfall. With high pressure on crude oil supply and demand, falling crude oil prices, the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. - PP: The downstream demand for PP is in the "Golden September and Silver October" season but falls short of expectations. With new production capacity coming on stream, increased supply, and high - pressure on the cost side due to falling crude oil prices, the PP market is expected to oscillate weakly [16][17]. - Plastic: The plastic market has a neutral - level supply and low - level demand. With new production capacity and falling crude oil prices, and the demand during the peak season being less than expected, the plastic market is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term [18]. - PVC: The PVC market has high supply and low demand. With increased social inventory, weak cost, and no actual anti - involution policy implemented, the PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term [19][20]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market has increased supply from resumed production. Although the demand from coke enterprises is weak, the high - level demand from steel mills provides support. The market is expected to be relatively stable during the "Golden September and Silver October" [21]. - Urea: The urea market has high supply and low demand. With poor domestic demand and continued inventory accumulation, it is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the winter storage situation [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 16, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Polysilicon, coking coal, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and butadiene rubber rose by more than 3%, while Shanghai silver, lithium carbonate, coke, and red dates rose by more than 2%. The container shipping index (European line) and live pigs fell by more than 3%, and apples fell by nearly 2% [6]. - In terms of stock index futures, the main contract of the CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) rose 0.38%, the main contract of the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) rose 0.80%, the main contract of the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) fell 1.01%, and the main contract of the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) fell 0.95% [6]. - In terms of treasury bond futures, the main contract of the 2 - year treasury bond futures (TS) fell 0.01%, the main contract of the 5 - year treasury bond futures (TF) fell 0.01%, the main contract of the 10 - year treasury bond futures (T) rose 0.06%, and the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures (TL) rose 0.42% [7]. - As of 15:23 on October 16, in terms of capital flow, the main contracts of SSE 50 2512, coking coal 2601, and CSI 300 2512 had capital inflows of 1.403 billion, 673 million, and 602 million respectively; the main contracts of CSI 1000 2512, CSI 500 2512, and Shanghai copper 2511 had capital outflows of 2.862 billion, 1.7 billion, and 1.3 billion respectively [7]. 3.2. Individual Futures Analysis - Copper: China's September CPI and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed, and the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months. In September 2025, China imported 25.87 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.23%. In October, 6 smelters had overhauls, affecting an additional 47,300 tons of production compared to September. Although the high copper price restrains downstream consumption, the overall market is still in an upward trend [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The supply is expected to increase in October, with new production lines put into operation. In September 2025, Chile exported 11,100 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a month - on - month decrease of 1,881 tons (- 14%). The domestic production schedule in October is 84,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. The demand in the downstream is in the peak season [11]. - Crude Oil: On October 5, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory has increased more than expected, but the refined oil inventory has decreased more than expected. Russia's crude oil exports are still at a high level. The market is worried about the demand due to various factors, and the supply - demand situation is weak [12][14]. - Asphalt: After the National Day, the asphalt production rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 37%, and the expected production in October is 2.682 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons (- 0.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 350,000 tons (15.0%). The downstream demand is restricted by funds and rainfall [15]. - PP: The downstream PP production rate increased by 0.05 percentage points to 51.76%. On October 16, some overhauled devices restarted. New production capacity has been put into operation. The demand during the peak season is less than expected [16][17]. - Plastic: The plastic production rate remained at about 87.5%. The downstream PE production rate increased by 0.23 percentage points to 44.36%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the demand during the peak season is less than expected [18]. - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC production rate increased by 3.66 percentage points to 82.63%. The downstream demand is low, and the export expectation in the fourth quarter is weak. The social inventory is still high [19][20]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal price showed an intraday increase. The supply has increased with the resumption of production, and the demand from coke enterprises is weak, but the steel mills' demand provides support [21]. - Urea: The urea price showed an intraday decrease and then an increase. The upstream factories are holding up the price, but the downstream demand is low. The daily production is about 190,000 - 200,000 tons, and the inventory is increasing [23].
冠通每日交易策略-20251016
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-10-16 13:52