铁合金产业风险管理日报-20251016

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the ferroalloy trend include the contradiction between high supply and weak demand, the challenge to cost support, and the contradiction between the expectation of anti - involution and weak reality. Ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4] - The rise of ferroalloys today is mainly due to the impact of coking coal, but the weak downstream demand pattern remains unchanged. There are still expectations for policy stimulus, so ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 33.4%. For silicomanganese, it is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.13% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.9% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SF2601 and SM2601 futures at a 15% hedging ratio when SF is at 6200 - 6250 and SM is at 6400 - 6500 to prevent inventory depreciation [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy SF2601 and SM2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio when SF is at 5200 - 5300 and SM is at 5300 - 5400 to lock in procurement costs [3] Core Contradictions - High supply and weak demand: Ferroalloy production remains at a high level, but downstream demand shows no obvious improvement, with inventory accumulation in five major steel products. Silicomanganese is relatively stronger than ferrosilicon recently [4] - Cost support challenge: Although the prices of blue charcoal, electricity, and manganese ore are stable, the continuous decline of coking coal prices challenges the effectiveness of cost support [4] - Contradiction between expectation and reality: There is an expectation of supply - side contraction, but the lack of substantial action leads to a high risk of price rising and then falling [4] 利多解读 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Machinery Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to maintain a stable and positive operation of the machinery industry from 2025 to 2026 [6] - The China Household Electrical Appliances Association issued an initiative to strengthen self - discipline and fair competition in the household appliance industry, aiming to eliminate disorderly low - price competition [6] 利空解读 - US President Trump announced that the US will impose a 100% new tariff on Chinese - imported goods starting from November 1st [7] - The inventory of five major steel products continued to accumulate, with a 160,000 - ton inventory this week, a week - on - week increase of 8.7%. Ferrosilicon enterprise inventory is 66,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.1%, and silicomanganese enterprise inventory is 242,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.7% [7] Daily Data - Ferrosilicon daily data shows changes in basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from October 9th to October 16th [8] - Silicomanganese daily data shows changes in basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from October 9th to October 16th [9] Term Structure Spread and Seasonal Charts - There are term structure spread charts for ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and coking coal [10][11] - There are seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory [13][22]