Report Industry Investment Ratings - SDIC Futures gives a ☆☆☆ rating to rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, silicon manganese, and silicon iron, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [1]. - It assigns a ★☆☆ rating to coke and coking coal, indicating a bullish or bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase or decrease, but poor operability on the market [1]. Core Views - The demand expectation for steel remains weak, and the market stabilizes slightly after continuous adjustments but may still fluctuate in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of China-US game and the promotion of domestic demand stimulus policies [2]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is necessary to focus on the progress of China-US trade negotiations and the upcoming important meetings [3]. - The support near the previous low of coke and coking coal is relatively solid, and attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff increases [4][6]. - Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are mainly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market rebounded slightly in a volatile manner. This week, the apparent demand for rebar increased significantly month-on-month but remained weak year-on-year. Production continued to decline, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot-rolled coils also increased, production decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. Iron ore production remained high, but downstream demand was insufficient. As steel mill profits declined, the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain continued to ferment. From the perspective of downstream industries, the manufacturing industry showed marginal stability, real estate investment declined significantly, infrastructure investment growth slowed down, and overall domestic demand remained weak. Steel exports remained high in September. The demand expectation remained weak, and the market stabilized slightly after continuous adjustments but may still fluctuate in the short term [2]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market showed a weak oscillation. On the supply side, global shipments decreased month-on-month but were stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume increased, and there was no significant pressure on port inventory accumulation. On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel increased significantly after the holiday, and iron ore production remained high with resilience. Steel mills had a certain demand for phased replenishment, but as profits shrank and demand remained relatively low, the pressure for future production cuts gradually increased. External trade frictions continued, the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain strengthened, and market sentiment weakened. It still needs subsequent policy support. It is expected that iron ore will mainly oscillate at a high level [3]. Coke - The coke price oscillated upward during the day. The first round of price increases in the coking industry was fully implemented, and the second round was postponed. Profit levels were average, daily production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. After pre-holiday replenishment, downstream users are currently consuming inventory, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the high level of downstream iron ore production supports raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The coke futures market is slightly at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated upward during the day. The production of coking coal mines continued to increase slightly, the spot auction volume decreased slightly, and the transaction price remained stable. Terminal inventory decreased. The total coking coal inventory decreased significantly month-on-month, and production-end inventory decreased slightly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the high level of downstream iron ore production supports raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The coking coal futures market is slightly at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price mainly oscillated during the day. Attention should be paid to the tender pricing news of a large steel mill in the north. Currently, the inquiry price is 5,750 yuan/ton. On the demand side, iron ore production remains high. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, but production remained at a high level. Silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand remained good. The quoted price of manganese ore shipments increased slightly month-on-month, and the spot ore was boosted by the market. Manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7]. Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price mainly oscillated during the day. On the demand side, iron ore production remains high. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month-on-month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand was okay. Silicon iron supply remained at a high level, and on-balance sheet inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [8].
黑色金属日报-20251016
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-10-16 13:57