航运衍生品数据日报-20251016

Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data Shipping Freight Index - The current values of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - West America, SCFIS - West America, SCFI - East America, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1115, 1087, 1460, 862, 2385, 971, 1031, and 1485 respectively, with daily changes of -6.97%, -2.93%, -10.76%, -1.60%, -6.73%, -7.70%, -1.43%, and -9.34% [5]. Futures Contracts - For contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604, the current values are 1306.6, 1450.2, 1120.6, 1708.6, 1463.4, and 1142.0 respectively, with daily changes of -0.93%, 0.01%, -1.37%, 2.06%, -0.07%, and -0.70% [5]. Contract Positions - The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1510, 1115, 11335, 27023, 9822, and 13676 respectively, with daily changes of (31), 14, (1820), (168), 112, and 310 [5]. Monthly Spreads - The current values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads are -588.0, 245.2, and 566.6 respectively, with daily changes of (50.1), 35.5, and 42.5 [5]. Group 2: Market News - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese - origin goods starting from November 1 [5]. - China announced new restrictions on rare - earth and related technology exports and released a new version of the "unreliable entity list" targeting US defense technology companies [5]. - On October 9, Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had reached a peace agreement, with Israel partially withdrawing from Gaza and Hamas releasing remaining hostages [5]. - US customs documents on October 11 outlined new tariffs on certain Chinese products effective from October 14 [5]. - After signing the Gaza agreement, Netanyahu threatened to restart the war if Israel's demands were not met peacefully, and the Israeli middle - level negotiation delegation will stay in Egypt to promote the second - stage agreement [5]. - Trump is expected to visit Israel next Monday, with a "in - and - out" short - visit due to security concerns [5][6]. Group 3: EC Market Analysis Market Overview - The EC market showed a strong and volatile trend. In late October, the overall price increase was called for in the range of 1800 - 2000 (finally settled at 1500 - 1800), and the price increase notice for November is around 2500 [7]. Market Logic - The EC market rebounded significantly due to the Ministry of Commerce's counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. [8]. - These 5 US subsidiaries include one involved in container ship manufacturing, mainly building 2000 - 3000TEU small container ships for Matson's West America route, with little connection to the European route [9]. - Hanwha Shipyard currently has 790,000 TEU of shipping capacity serving the European route, and although these ships are not currently in the sanctions scope, the policy is unclear, and the sanctions scope may expand if Sino - US confrontation escalates [9]. Investment Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [10].