2025年9月金融数据点评：“防空转”下，信贷同比回落趋势或将延续

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of preventing capital idling and optimizing credit structure, the year - on - year decline trend of monthly credit increments is likely to continue. The year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing at the end of September 2025 was +8.7%, with the growth rate decreasing by 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing in the fourth quarter will continue to decline [2][8]. - In the fourth quarter of this year, the bond market is expected to perform better than the third quarter, but there will still be policy reform disturbances. It is recommended to actively allocate when the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond is above 1.75%, and the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to around 1.7% [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Credit - Under the background of preventing capital idling and optimizing credit structure, the monthly credit increment continued to be less than the same period last year. In September 2025, the new credit was about 1.29 trillion yuan, 300 billion yuan less than the same period last year and 700 billion yuan more than the previous month. The credit structure was optimized, with the medium - and long - term loans of residents and short - term loans of enterprises increasing year - on - year, and bill discounting decreasing year - on - year. As of the end of September 2025, the balance of RMB loans had reached 270 trillion yuan, and the weighted average interest rate of new enterprise loans (domestic and foreign currencies) in September 2025 was 3.1% [8]. - Promoting credit structure optimization is the policy focus of the regulatory authorities, and a slight year - on - year weakening of credit increments is unlikely to trigger a quantitative loose monetary policy. The optimization of credit structure is reflected in the fact that the credit increments in each month of the third quarter were less than the same period last year, while the loan growth rates in key policy - supported areas were relatively high, and the bill - padding situation was weakened [8]. Social Financing - In September 2025, the increment of social financing was about 3.53 trillion yuan, lower than 3.76 trillion yuan in the same period last year. On - balance - sheet financing and government bonds were the main contributors to the increment of social financing. Corporate bonds and undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased significantly year - on - year [8]. - In the first three quarters of this year, government bonds provided trend support for the growth of social financing. As of September 28, the issuance progress of national bonds and new local government bonds in 2025 had reached 81.4%, faster than the scheduled progress. It is expected that the issuance scale of government bonds will decline in the fourth quarter, and the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing in the fourth quarter will continue to decline. However, if part of the new local government debt quota for 2026 is issued in the fourth quarter of this year, it may support the year - end social financing growth rate [8]. Money - In September, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 continued to rise, mainly due to the increase in fiscal expenditure at the end of the quarter, the interaction between wealth management and deposit business, and the relatively prominent credit increment at the end of the quarter. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 decreased, partly because of the marginal increase in the M2 base in the same period last year [8]. Outlook for Financial Data and the Bond Market - Without considering the impact of the early release of the local government debt quota, it is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing in each month of the fourth quarter will continue to decline. The bond market in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to perform better than that in the third quarter, and it is recommended to actively allocate when the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond is above 1.75%, with the yield expected to fall to around 1.7% [8].