Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economy is in the process of recovery, with the narrowing of the decline in CPI and PPI, and the improvement of export growth. However, the effective demand is still the core problem, and there may be incremental policies in the future to promote the stable recovery of prices [1]. - The impact of the current Sino - US trade friction on the foreign exchange market is expected to be weaker than that in April. The short - term outlook for Sino - US trade talks is not optimistic, and the uncertainty of future tariff progress is relatively high [1]. - The stock index is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, with limited rebound space due to factors such as weak trading volume and the differentiation of leading industries [4]. - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The impact of recent data on the bond market is neutral to positive, and short - term trading should be based on a volatile mindset [5]. - The shipping index (European line) futures may continue to fluctuate or slightly rise in the short term, but there is a risk of a decline from the high point [7]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium and long term, but with increased short - term volatility. Copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals have different trends. For example, copper has a spot premium, and aluminum is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [8][10][12]. - In the black market, steel products may need to cut production to relieve pressure, and iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure. Coal and coke prices are affected by downstream steel demand, and ferroalloys face challenges to cost support due to weak downstream demand [21][22][26]. - Crude oil is expected to remain weak, and LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. PX - TA and MEG - bottle chips are mainly affected by macro events, and methanol is also affected by macro trading and supply - demand factors [27][28][32]. - In the agricultural product market, for pigs, it is recommended to sell short at high prices, and for oilseeds, they are expected to fluctuate weakly. Oils may stop falling and stabilize [52][53][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Market Information: In September, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. The decline in CPI and PPI narrowed, and the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months. Overseas, the US government shutdown and trade policies also had an impact on the market [1]. - Core Logic: Although the National Day holiday had a good performance in personnel flow, there were contradictions in the consumption end. The subsequent economic recovery needs to focus on the residents' demand side. Policies are being promoted in an orderly manner, and there may be incremental policies. The export growth in September was supported by low - base effects and demand from emerging economies, and the anti - involution policy promoted the recovery of the price index [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - Market Review: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1239 at 16:30 on the previous trading day, up 172 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - Core Logic: The current Sino - US trade friction is expected to have a weaker impact on the foreign exchange market than in April. The short - term upward space of the US dollar index is limited, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable [2]. Stock Index - Market Review: The stock index rebounded on the previous trading day, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rising 1.48%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased to 5033.75 billion yuan, and the futures contracts all rose with reduced volume [3]. - Core Logic: The rebound of the stock index was in line with the wide - range fluctuation expectation. Although the risk - aversion sentiment eased, the trading volume decreased significantly, and the rebound space was limited. The stock market was less sensitive to economic data and more focused on Sino - US trade relations and policy expectations [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Review: Treasury bond futures opened lower and closed down on Wednesday. The yield of spot bonds fluctuated during the day and slightly increased at the end of the day [4]. - Core Logic: The stock - bond relationship showed a seesaw effect. The recent data had a neutral to positive impact on the bond market, and the short - term trading of treasury bond futures should be based on a volatile mindset [5]. Container Shipping - Market Review: The container shipping index (European line) futures prices were generally volatile. Except for EC2510, the prices of other monthly contracts increased [5]. - Core Logic: The rise in futures prices was mainly due to the stable quotes of Maersk at the end of October and the price increase notice of Hapag - Lloyd. However, due to the unstable geopolitical and tariff issues, there was a risk of a decline from the high point [7]. Precious Metals - Market Review: On Wednesday, precious metal prices continued to be strong. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4224.9 per ounce, up 1.48%, and silver 2512 contract closed at $52.525 per ounce, up 3.76% [8]. - Core Logic: The medium - and long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but short - term fluctuations are large. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [10]. Copper - Market Review: The overseas copper market fell in the second half of the night. Comex copper closed at $4.966 per pound, down 0.97%, and LME copper closed at $10576 per ton, down 0.02% [10]. - Core Logic: The spot market had a premium, and the futures price showed a Back structure. The 84000 level support was effectively broken, and the upper pressure level was at 86000 [11]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Market Review: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20910 yuan per ton, down 0.10%, and LME aluminum closed at $2744.5 per ton, up 0.18% [11]. - Core Logic: The release of the Fed's Beige Book increased the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate slightly upward. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of aluminum with certain support [12]. Zinc - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22015 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [13]. - Core Logic: The overnight opening of zinc prices was lower, possibly due to the stop of inventory reduction in LME. The domestic zinc market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the short - term price may face downward pressure [13]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 121180 yuan per ton, up 0.08%, and the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12560 yuan per ton, down 0.24% [13]. - Core Logic: The short - term downward driving force has weakened. The new energy sector is in the peak season, and the demand for downstream procurement is high. However, the price of nickel iron is weak, and the stainless steel market is also affected by factors such as profit pressure and demand [14]. Tin - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai tin closed at 281,700 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [14]. - Core Logic: The fundamentals of tin remain unchanged, and it is still regarded as a long - term bullish product. The support level at 278,000 yuan is stable [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 72,720 yuan per ton on Tuesday, up 0.06% [16]. - Core Logic: The market demand is good, and the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts may support the futures price. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 70,000 - 78,000 yuan per ton [17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Review: The main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8570 yuan per ton on Wednesday, up 0.59%, and the main contract of polysilicon futures closed at 50,865 yuan per ton, up 1.75% [17]. - Core Logic: With the arrival of the dry season, the production reduction of industrial silicon enterprises may increase, and the price may rise slightly. The polysilicon market is in a game between news and fundamentals, and the market is expected to focus on relevant events such as the "October platform establishment" and "November warehouse receipt cancellation" [18][19]. Lead - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 17,110 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [19]. - Core Logic: The lead price fluctuated narrowly. The supply is affected by the high silver price, and the demand is expected to have potential in the Southeast Asian market. The inventory may accumulate in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate with a certain downward possibility [19][20]. Black Market - Steel Products: The steel market continued to accumulate inventory, and the profit of steel mills continued to shrink. It may be necessary to cut production to relieve pressure, and the overall market is expected to be under pressure [21]. - Iron Ore: Under the premise of weak steel demand and high inventory, the iron ore price has no basis for a trend - upward. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, and remain in a range - bound oscillation [22][24]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The downstream steel product supply - demand contradiction has deteriorated, and the coal - coke inventory structure is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies limit the supply elasticity of coking coal in the fourth quarter, and the winter storage this year is expected to support the price [25]. - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese: The contradiction between high supply and weak demand persists. The cost support is facing challenges, and there is no obvious upward driving force in the short term [26]. Crude Oil - Market Review: The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 43 cents to $58.27 per barrel, and the price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery fell 48 cents to $61.91 per barrel [27]. - Core Logic: The crude oil market is affected by macro - sentiment and supply - demand factors. The current supply - demand fundamentals are unfavorable, and the price is expected to remain weak [28]. LPG - Market Review: The LPG2511 contract closed at 4138 (+11), and the LPG2512 contract closed at 4019 (+39) [28]. - Core Logic: The domestic LPG fundamentals have little change. The profit - shrinking drive still exists, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [29]. PTA - PX - Market Review: The PX supply is expected to increase in October, and the PTA load has decreased. The polyester demand has a seasonal improvement, but the overall impact on the price is limited [30][31]. - Core Logic: The PX - TA trend is mainly driven by macro - factors and oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side operation, and consider expanding the processing fee of TA01 below 280 [32]. MEG - Bottle Chips - Market Review: The inventory of East China ports has increased, and the supply of some devices has changed [32]. - Core Logic: The MEG fundamentals have a marginal improvement, but the valuation is under pressure. The price is expected to move in the range of 3850 - 4250, and it can consider selling put options on eg2601 - P - 3850 when there is an over - decline [35]. Methanol - Market Review: The methanol 01 contract closed at 2298 on Wednesday [35]. - Core Logic: The methanol market is affected by macro - trading and supply - demand factors. The 01 contract has high supply and high demand, but the inventory pressure has not been resolved. It is recommended to buy a small amount of bottom positions at low prices [36]. PP - Market Review: The PP2601 contract closed at 6595 (-7) [36]. - Core Logic: The PP supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price is following the cost - end decline, and it is recommended to wait and see on the single - side operation [38]. PE - Market Review: The plastic 2601 contract closed at 6910 (-8) [39]. - Core Logic: The PE supply is increasing, and the demand recovery is slow. The inventory is high, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side operation [41]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Review: The BZ2603 contract closed at 5579 (-18), and the EB2511 contract closed at 6540 (-4) [42]. - Core Logic: The pure benzene supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the demand is weak, with a difficult - to - change inventory - accumulation pattern. The styrene supply is tightening in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see on the single - side operation [42][43]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: The FU01 contract closed at 2683 yuan per ton [43]. - Core Logic: The fuel oil supply is tightening, and the demand is stable. The crack spread has limited upward momentum, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling the crack spread [43][44]. Asphalt - Market Review: The BU11 contract closed at 3250 yuan per ton [44]. - Core Logic: The asphalt supply is relatively stable, and the demand is affected by the holiday and weather. The cost is expected to decline, and the price may have a short - term upward opportunity during the demand peak season [45]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda Ash: The supply pressure in the long - term is high, and the inventory is increasing. The demand is stable, and the price is limited by high inventory but has cost support [46]. - Glass: The inventory is high, the production and sales are average, and the price is restricted by weak demand. It is waiting for industrial policy guidance [47]. - Caustic Soda: The spot market is oscillating weakly, and there is an expectation of non - aluminum replenishment in the future, but it needs to be observed [48]. Pulp - Market Review: The sp2601 contract closed at 5164 (-6) [48]. - Core Logic: The pulp market sentiment is weak, affected by factors such as the decline in the price of foreign - sourced softwood pulp, high port inventory, and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50]. Logs - Market Review: The lg2511 contract closed at 793 (5.5) [50]. - Core Logic: As the delivery approaches, the long - position receiving willingness is insufficient, and the price is expected to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the 11 - 01 reverse spread position [50]. Agricultural Products - Pigs: The supply is still abundant, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices. Pay attention to the farmers' replenishment behavior and the implementation of capacity - reduction policies [52]. - Oilseeds: The internal market is expected to fluctuate weakly, affected by Sino - US trade relations and the supply and demand of soybeans [53]. - Oils: The export of Malaysian palm oil has improved, and the internal market may stop falling and stabilize [54].
金融期货早评-20251016
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-16 01:49