资讯早间报-20251016

Report Summary Overnight Market Trends - WTI crude oil's main contract was at $58.75 per barrel; Brent crude oil's main contract rose 0.13% to $62.47 per barrel [4]. - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 1.48% at $4,224.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 3.76% at $52.53 per ounce [4]. - Most London base metals rose, with LME tin up 0.54% at $35,380.00 per ton, LME aluminum up 0.26% at $2,744.50 per ton, etc., while LME copper fell 0.02% and LME zinc fell 0.03% [4]. Macroeconomic News - By the end of September 2025, M2 balance was 335.38 trillion yuan, up 8.4% year - on - year. The balance of local and foreign currency loans was 274.33 trillion yuan, up 6.5% year - on - year [7]. - From January to August, policies supporting the manufacturing industry provided tax cuts, fee reductions, and tax refunds of 1292.5 billion yuan [8]. - In September 2025, China's CPI fell 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI fell 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [8]. - The NDRC issued an action plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities by 2027, aiming to add 1.6 million DC charging guns [8]. - A Fed governor said that recent trade tensions increased economic uncertainty, making an early interest rate cut more urgent [8]. - The US president said the US would consider land operations against drug - trafficking groups and authorized the CIA to operate in Venezuela [8]. - The Fed's Beige Book indicated that overall economic activity changed little, with some regions reporting growth, no change, or a slight slowdown [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of October 15, 2025, China's methanol port inventory was 1.4914 million tons, down 51,800 tons from the previous period [12]. - As of the week of October 13, the total refined oil inventory at Fujairah Port in the UAE was 178.12 million barrels, up 14.78 million barrels from the previous week [13]. - Russia's deputy prime minister said global energy demand was growing, but Russia had no plan to submit an oil production compensation plan to OPEC [13]. - The US president said India's prime minister promised to stop buying Russian oil [13]. Metal Futures - The number of domestic polysilicon producers increased to 11 this week, and the October output was expected to be around 130,000 tons, with a narrowing month - on - month increase and a slight inventory build - up expected [14]. - Freeport McMoRan planned to exit the benchmark pricing system for copper ore sales [16]. - From October 1 - 12, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 367,000, down 1% year - on - year but up 1% from the previous month [17]. - Workers at an aluminum bauxite company in Guinea launched an indefinite strike [17]. - In September 2025, the output of refined tin in 20 domestic smelters was 9,770 tons, down 34.69% month - on - month and 2.3% year - on - year [18]. - In August 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 256,500 tons, the global primary aluminum market had a shortage of 105,400 tons, and the global refined nickel market had a surplus of 49,900 tons [18]. - Indonesia's tin production was expected to return to normal in 2026 after the crackdown on illegal mining [19]. Black - Series Futures - As of the week of October 15, the national building materials output was 4602,000 tons, up 53,400 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory was 5013,800 tons, up 132,200 tons; the social inventory was 5685,800 tons, down 35,400 tons; and the apparent demand was 4505,200 tons, up 760,900 tons [21]. Agricultural Futures - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15 were 781,006 tons, up 12.3% from the previous month [24]. - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15 were 862,724 tons, up 16.2% from the previous month [25]. - India's vegetable oil imports in September were 1,639,743 tons, slightly down from August. Palm oil imports were 829,017 tons, significantly down from August [25]. - Indonesia planned to raise the CPO export tax from 10% to 15% [26]. - China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs deployed work on pig quarantine and slaughter [26]. - Guangdong Province planned to start purchasing frozen pork reserves as the pig - grain ratio entered the first - level warning zone [26]. - US threats of not buying Chinese edible oil may be ineffective [26]. - Brazil's expected soybean planting area in 2025 was 47.7 million hectares, up 0.1% from the previous forecast and 3.6% from last year, and the expected output was 1.65866 billion tons [27]. - In September 2025, US soybean crushing volume was 197.863 million bushels, and the soybean oil inventory was 1.243 billion pounds [28]. Financial Markets Financial - On Wednesday, A - shares rebounded with a shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22% to 3912.21, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36%. The trading volume was 2.09 trillion yuan, down over 500 billion yuan [30]. - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.84% to 25,910.6, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.57%. Southbound funds sold a net HK$5.443 billion [30]. - By the end of Q3 2025, northbound funds' A - share market value was close to 2.59 trillion yuan, up 12.91% quarter - on - quarter, and they significantly increased holdings in technology sectors [30]. - Ping An Life and China Ping An increased their holdings in Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank of China's H - shares [31][32]. Industry - Six departments issued an action plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities by 2027 [33]. - In September, China's second - hand car market transactions were 1.7944 million, up 5.1% month - on - month and 8.2% year - on - year, with a transaction amount of 110.466 billion yuan [34]. - Chengdu expanded the scope of the "commercial mortgage to provident fund mortgage" policy [34]. Overseas - The IMF warned that global public debt might exceed 100% of GDP by 2029 [35]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that overall economic activity changed little, with a slight decline in retail spending and stable employment [35]. - The US Senate failed to advance a temporary appropriation bill [37]. - The Trump administration might cut over 10,000 federal government jobs during the shutdown [38]. - The US Treasury Secretary planned to present Fed candidates to Trump after Thanksgiving [38]. - A Fed governor said recent trade tensions increased economic uncertainty, making interest rate cuts more necessary [38]. - The New York Fed's manufacturing index rose sharply in October [39]. - South Korea introduced new housing market policies [39]. - Norway planned to gradually cancel subsidies for electric vehicles [39]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.04%, the S&P 500 up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq up 0.66%. US ETFs were attracting funds at a record - breaking speed [40][41]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX down 0.23%, the French CAC40 up 1.99%, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.3% [41]. - Most Asia - Pacific stock markets closed higher, with South Korea's KOSPI up 2.68% and Japan's Nikkei 225 up 1.76% [41]. - Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and ASML reported better - than - expected Q3 results [42]. Commodities - US crude oil and Brent crude oil futures rose slightly, but the market faced supply - surplus pressure [44]. - Precious metal futures rose due to concerns about the US government shutdown and high global public debt [44]. - JPMorgan Chase's CEO said it was reasonable to hold gold and predicted a significant rise in gold prices [45]. - Most London base metals rose, and the market was balancing various factors [45]. Bonds - The stock market's strength suppressed the bond market. China's central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the Ministry of Finance issued RMB 11 billion in bonds in Hong Kong [46]. - US Treasury yields were mixed [48]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on Wednesday, and the US dollar index fell [49]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released include Japan's core machinery orders, Australia's unemployment rate, and the US's PPI, retail sales, etc. [51]. - Key events include China's central bank's reverse repurchase maturity, speeches by central bank officials, and press conferences [53].