西南期货早间评论-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious approach is recommended [6]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising, and existing long positions can be held [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [12]. - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are affected by policies in the short term and are expected to return to the supply - demand logic in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks [15]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks [17]. - The prices of coking coal and coke have positive support, but the futures prices have already reflected the improvement in fundamentals to a large extent. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks [20]. - The short - term demand for ferroalloys has a slight increase, but the supply is still in excess. Investors can consider long positions at low levels after a decline [24]. - Crude oil has rebounded after bottom - building at a low level. Investors can focus on going long on the main crude oil contract [26][27]. - The sales volume of fuel oil in the Fujairah Oil Industrial Area is at a high level, and the inventory situation is mixed. Investors can short the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the main fuel oil contract [28][29]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30][31]. - For natural rubber, pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback [32][33]. - PVC is expected to continue bottom - oscillating [34][35]. - Urea is expected to be volatile in the short term and bullish in the medium term [37]. - PX is expected to be in a short - term oscillating adjustment, and investors can consider range - bound operations [38]. - PTA is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors can participate in the range at low levels [39][40]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for range - bound participation, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. - Short - fiber is expected to follow the cost to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42][43]. - Bottle - chip is expected to follow the cost to oscillate, and investors should control risks [44]. - Soda ash is expected to be lightly stable and oscillating in the short term, and the market will return to the fundamental - led logic [45]. - Glass is recommended to go short at high levels in the short term, and investors should pay attention to position control [47]. - Caustic soda is expected to have a positive supply - demand difference next week, and the market sentiment is good [48][49]. - Pulp is expected to oscillate and adjust, and investors should pay attention to the implementation of macro - policies and marginal demand signals [50][51]. - Lithium carbonate's trading logic has shifted, and investors should pay attention to the key time in late September. Non - entered investors should operate with a light position [52]. - Copper is in an oscillating state, and the Shanghai copper main contract should be temporarily observed [54][55]. - Tin is expected to oscillate, with tight supply at the mine end and weak consumption [57]. - Nickel is expected to oscillate, with an over - supply pattern of primary nickel [58]. - For soybean meal, consider long positions at the support level after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider taking profits on long positions at high levels [59][60]. - For palm oil, consider adding some long positions [63]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider adding a small amount of long positions [65]. - Cotton is expected to be strong in price in the short term and oscillate in a range [67][69]. - Sugar is recommended to be observed, with high foreign production expectations and more imports before October in China [72]. - Apple is recommended to be observed, with a slight increase in production expected [74][75]. - For live pigs, consider a reverse - spread strategy [78]. - Eggs are recommended to be observed, with supply pressure expected to ease in October [80][81]. - Corn is recommended to be observed, and corn starch follows the corn market [83][84]. - Logs are expected to oscillate at high levels [86]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 253 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 124.3 billion yuan. The use of stablecoins may increase the demand for US Treasury bonds [5]. - The current macro - data is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The yield of treasury bonds is at a relatively low level, and it is expected that there will be no trend - based market [6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance [8]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising, and existing long positions can be held [9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The manufacturing and service PMIs in the Eurozone and Germany in August were better than expected [11]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated. The spot prices of billets and steel products were reported. Policy changes are the main factor in the short term, and the prices are expected to return to the supply - demand logic in the medium term [14][15]. - Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and control positions [15]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. Policy is the main factor, and the price follows coking coal. The supply - demand pattern is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term [17]. - Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and control positions [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to fall. The supply is affected by policies, and the futures prices have reflected the improvement in fundamentals to a large extent [20]. - Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and control positions [20]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures showed different trends. The supply of manganese ore decreased, and the cost of ferroalloys increased. The production of ferroalloys increased, but the demand recovery was weak [22]. - The short - term supply may be in excess, and investors can consider long positions at low levels after a decline [24]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The US crude oil inventory decreased significantly, and the sanctions on Russia and India supported the price [25][26]. - Investors can focus on going long on the main crude oil contract [27]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated and rose. The sales volume of fuel oil in the Fujairah Oil Industrial Area increased, but the inventory situation in different regions was mixed [28]. - Investors can short the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the main fuel oil contract [29]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The supply decreased due to losses, and the market sentiment was positive. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30][31]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The supply was affected by rainfall, and the cost support was strong. The demand increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [32]. - Pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback [33]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose slightly. The supply exceeded demand, and the price continued to oscillate at the bottom. The supply increased, the demand decreased, and the profit improved [34]. - PVC is expected to continue bottom - oscillating [35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell. The market expected relaxed export restrictions to India. The supply was at a high level, and the demand for compound fertilizers increased [36][37]. - Urea is expected to be volatile in the short term and bullish in the medium term [37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The supply - demand was balanced in the short term, and the PXN spread was firm, but the cost support from crude oil was insufficient [38]. - PX is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors can consider range - bound operations [38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply decreased, the demand improved, but the cost support from crude oil was weak, and the processing fee was under pressure [39][40]. - PTA is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors can participate in the range at low levels [40]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The overall supply increased, but the overseas supply decreased. The demand improved slightly [41]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for range - bound participation, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand improved slightly. It is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [42][43]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The supply decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand for soft drinks increased. It is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [44]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased slightly. It is expected to be lightly stable and oscillate in the short term [45]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line was stable, the inventory decreased slowly, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to go short at high levels in the short term [47]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was stable. The price was supported by changes in supply and demand [48][49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply was expected to shrink, but the demand improvement was uncertain, and the inventory was at a high level. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The trading logic has shifted, and the price bottom support has increased, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. Non - entered investors should operate with a light position [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated. The spot market was average, and the price was affected by inventory and market sentiment. The Shanghai copper main contract should be temporarily observed [54][55]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply at the mine end was tight, and the consumption was weak. It is expected to oscillate [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply of primary nickel was in an over - supply pattern, and the price was under pressure. It is expected to oscillate [58]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures fell. The USDA lowered the US soybean planting area, and the domestic inventory increased. For soybean meal, consider long positions at the support level after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider taking profits on long positions at high levels [59][60]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell. The Indonesian palm oil inventory decreased, and the export data was strong. Consider adding some long positions [61][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. The domestic inventory situation of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil was different. Consider adding a small amount of long positions [64][65]. Cotton - The domestic and foreign cotton markets showed different trends. The US cotton supply decreased, and the domestic inventory decreased. It is expected to be strong in price in the short term and oscillate in a range [66][69]. Sugar - The domestic sugar futures oscillated, and the foreign sugar futures fell. The Brazilian sugar production decreased slightly, and the Indian sugar production was expected to increase. It is recommended to be observed [71][72]. Apple - Apple futures rose slightly. The expected production reduction was disproved, and the production is expected to increase slightly. It is recommended to be observed [74][75]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand improved slightly. Consider a reverse - spread strategy [77][78]. Eggs - Egg futures fell. The supply increased, and the demand was lower than expected. It is recommended to be observed, with supply pressure expected to ease in October [79][81]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn futures were flat, and corn starch futures rose. The weather was normal, and the new - season corn was expected to have a good harvest. The supply - demand of corn was balanced, and corn starch followed the corn market [82][84]. Logs - Log futures fell slightly. The spot price was strong, the demand was better than the supply, and the export increased. It is expected to oscillate at high levels [85][86].