国新国证期货早报-20251016

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On October 15, 2025, the A-share market showed an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.22% to 3912.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.73% to 13118.75 points, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.36% to 3025.87 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 2072.9 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 503.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends. Some were affected by factors such as supply and demand, international market conditions, and policy changes [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On October 15, the A-share market rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index regained the 3900 - point mark, and the trading volume decreased significantly [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was strong on October 15, closing at 4606.29, a rise of 67.22 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 15, the coke weighted index showed weak consolidation, closing at 1663.8, a rise of 5.6 [3]. - The coking coal weighted index showed narrow - range shock consolidation, closing at 1165.0 yuan, a rise of 10.7 [4]. - Factors affecting prices include changes in import freight, customs clearance issues, and downstream supply - demand contradictions. The cost support for coke is loosening, and the second - round price increase is difficult [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the rebound of US sugar and short - term large declines, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract stopped falling and rebounded slightly on October 15. Thailand's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase by 5% to 10.5 million tons [5]. Rubber - Due to the warning of heavy rain in Thailand from October 16 - 21, the spot price in Southeast Asia rose, and Shanghai rubber rebounded on October 15. China's automobile production and sales in September increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 15, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. As of October 9, Brazil's soybean sowing area reached 14% of the expected total area. Domestically, on October 15, soybean meal futures fluctuated. The soybean crushing volume in September was about 9.7 million tons, and it is expected to be about 8.5 million tons in October. The inventory is above 1 million tons, and the supply is loose [7]. Live Pigs - On October 15, live pig futures closed down. In October, the supply of suitable - weight pigs is sufficient, and consumer demand lacks growth. The short - term market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [8]. Palm Oil - On October 15, palm oil futures prices continued to decline slightly. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 increased compared with the same period last month [8]. Shanghai Copper - Powell's remarks on the employment market and the possible shutdown of a smelter in Indonesia supported the price, but the increase was limited by inventory increase and weak downstream procurement. It is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound pattern in the short term [9]. Iron Ore - On October 15, the iron ore 2601 contract fell. The shipping volume decreased slightly, the domestic arrival volume increased significantly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron water production remained high, but the pressure to reduce production increased in the future [9]. Asphalt - On October 15, the asphalt 2511 contract fell. The production and shipment volume decreased month - on - month, and the demand was affected by weather and funds. The short - term price will fluctuate [9]. Logs - On October 15, the log 2511 contract continued to decline, breaking through the 800 - point mark. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The import volume from January - September decreased by 12.7% year - on - year [11]. Cotton - On the night of October 15, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13260 yuan/ton. The inventory decreased by 50 lots. The price of machine - picked cotton is 5.9 - 6.2 yuan/kg. The cotton picking in Xinjiang is more than half completed, and the supply pressure is increasing [11]. Steel - On October 15, the rb2601 contract was reported at 3034 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract was reported at 3212 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the steel market transaction was weak, and the steel industry's profit continued to shrink. The steel price may be adjusted weakly in a narrow range in the short term [12]. Alumina - On October 15, the ao2601 contract was reported at 2797 yuan/ton. The supply is in surplus, and the price is weakly adjusted. The start of winter storage in the northwest may boost demand, but the overall transaction is dull [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On October 15, the al2511 contract was reported at 20910 yuan/ton. The Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain, putting pressure on the non - ferrous market. The downstream processing industry's start - up is stable, and the terminal demand is supportive [13].