期货市场交易指引：2025年10月16日-20251016

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips for stock indices and holding a wait-and-see stance for treasury bonds [1][5] - Black building materials: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, and a wait-and-see approach for glass [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Recommend buying on dips for copper and aluminum, a wait-and-see or short-selling approach on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin and silver, and buying on dips for gold [1][10][12] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins to have wide-range oscillations; a short-selling strategy for the 01 contract of soda ash [1][20][23][29][30] - Cotton and textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn to oscillate, PTA to have narrow-range oscillations, apples and jujubes to be slightly bullish [1][32][33][34] - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Short-selling on rallies for hogs and eggs, corn to have wide-range oscillations, soybean meal to have low-level oscillations, and oils to have limited corrections [1][37][40][43] Core Views - The A-share market showed a strong oscillation on October 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 3900 level. The increase in new social financing and loans in September reflects positive economic signals. Stock indices may continue to oscillate, and are bullish in the medium to long term [5] - The bond market may focus on the Sino-US geopolitical and trade issues before the APEC meeting at the end of the month. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate in the short term [5] - Black building materials are affected by factors such as rainfall, demand, and tariffs. Prices may first weaken and then strengthen in October [7] - Non-ferrous metals are influenced by global trade tensions, supply disruptions, and demand expectations. Copper and aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, while nickel and tin may oscillate [10][12][17] - Energy and chemical products face various challenges such as high supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. Most products are expected to oscillate or have a weakening trend [20][21][23] - The cotton and textile industry chain is affected by factors such as global supply and demand, Sino-US relations, and weather conditions. Apples and jujubes may be slightly bullish due to quality and supply issues [32][34][35] - In the agriculture and animal husbandry sector, hogs and eggs are under pressure due to supply and demand imbalances. Corn, soybean meal, and oils are affected by factors such as harvest, trade, and policy, with different trends [37][40][43] Summary by Category Macro-finance - Stock indices oscillated on October 15, with over 4300 stocks rising. The total market turnover was 2.09 trillion yuan, a decrease of 500 billion yuan. The increase in new social financing and loans in September indicates an improvement in economic activities. Stock indices are expected to continue to oscillate and are bullish in the medium to long term [5] - Treasury bond futures closed lower on October 15. The bond market may focus on Sino-US relations before the APEC meeting. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate in the short term [5] Black building materials - Coking coal and rebar are affected by rainfall, demand, and tariffs. Prices may first weaken and then strengthen in October. RB2601 of rebar may have a buying opportunity around 3000 [7] - Glass is affected by factors such as production line resumption, inventory increase, and demand weakness. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the changes in Shahe production lines [8][9] Non-ferrous metals - Copper prices experienced significant fluctuations due to trade tensions and supply disruptions. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and the demand in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips [10] - Aluminum is affected by factors such as bauxite price decline, production capacity increase, and demand seasonality. It is recommended to find low positions to build long positions [12] - Nickel is affected by factors such as RKAB policy adjustment, supply and demand imbalance, and price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or short-sell on rallies [17] - Tin is affected by factors such as supply shortage, demand recovery, and tariff expectations. It is recommended to conduct range trading [17] - Gold and silver prices are supported by factors such as interest rate cut expectations and risk aversion. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after a full correction [18][19] Energy and chemicals - PVC is affected by factors such as high supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract temporarily paying attention to the 4800 pressure [20][21] - Caustic soda is affected by factors such as macro expectations, supply and demand, and export prospects. It is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract temporarily paying attention to the range of 2380-2530 [22][23] - Styrene is affected by factors such as cost, supply and demand, and inventory. It is expected to oscillate weakly, temporarily paying attention to the 6900 pressure [23][24] - Rubber is affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macro environment. It is expected to oscillate, temporarily paying attention to the 15000 support [25][26] - Urea is affected by factors such as supply increase, demand dispersion, and inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policy [27] - Methanol is affected by factors such as supply recovery, demand support, and inventory increase. It is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as downstream demand and inventory changes [28][29] - Polyolefins are affected by factors such as supply pressure, weak demand, and cost decline. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the L2601 contract paying attention to the 6900 support and the PP2601 contract paying attention to the 6600 support [29][30] - Soda ash is affected by factors such as oversupply, weak demand, and inventory pressure. It is recommended to maintain a short-selling strategy for the 01 contract [30][31] Cotton and textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are affected by factors such as global supply and demand, Sino-US relations, and price fluctuations. It is expected to oscillate, and the outlook is bearish [32][33] - PTA is affected by factors such as crude oil prices, supply and demand, and inventory accumulation. It is expected to have narrow-range oscillations, paying attention to the range of 4500-4750 [33][34] - Apples are affected by factors such as weather conditions, quality decline, and price increase. It is expected to be slightly bullish [34][35] - Jujubes are affected by factors such as weather conditions, supply and demand, and price stability. It is expected to be slightly bullish [35] Agriculture and animal husbandry - Hogs are affected by factors such as supply increase, demand weakness, and price pressure. It is recommended to short-sell on rallies, with different strategies for different contracts [37][39] - Eggs are affected by factors such as supply and demand balance, price support, and seasonal factors. It is recommended to partially close short positions for the 11 contract and wait for spot price guidance, and wait for rallies to short-sell for the 12 and 01 contracts [40][42] - Corn is affected by factors such as new grain listing, supply and demand balance, and price pressure. It is expected to have wide-range oscillations, with a bearish view on the 11 contract and attention to the 1-5 reverse spread [42][43] - Soybean meal is affected by factors such as harvest pressure, export slowdown, and supply and demand balance. It is expected to have low-level oscillations, paying attention to the 2900 support of the M2601 contract [43][44] - Oils are affected by factors such as macro risks, supply and demand balance, and price fluctuations. It is expected to have limited corrections, with the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil paying attention to the support levels of 8150-8200, 9200-9300, and 9800-9900 respectively [45][51]