国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251016

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products" dated October 16, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Palm oil: Limited drivers from the origin, continue to hold the reverse spread [2][4] - Soybean oil: Range-bound, pay attention to Sino-US economic and trade relations [2][4] - Soybean meal: Technical trading, oscillating [2] - Soybean: Stronger oscillation [2] - Corn: Pay attention to the listing of new grain [2] - Sugar: Narrow consolidation [2] - Cotton: Expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term [2] - Eggs: Oscillating [2] - Pigs: The second - fattening logic leads to a downward shift in expectations [2] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - Fundamentals: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 9,322 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.09% and no change at night. Trading volume decreased by 77,751 lots, and positions increased by 2,263 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 9,200 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 increased by 16.2% compared to the same period last month. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15% [5][6][7] - Trend Intensity: 0 [9] Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The closing price of the soybean oil main contract was 8,252 yuan/ton, up 0.15% during the day and down 0.22% at night. Trading volume decreased by 52,905 lots, and positions increased by 3,429 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,590 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [5] - Trend Intensity: 0 [9] Soybean Meal - Fundamentals: The closing price of the DCE soybean meal 2601 contract was 2,917 yuan/ton, up 0.17% during the day and 0.10% at night. The spot price in Shandong was 2,960 - 2,980 yuan/ton, with stable or +10 yuan/ton changes. The trading volume was 110,000 tons, and the inventory was 1.0467 million tons [10] - Trend Intensity: 0 [12] Soybean - Fundamentals: The closing price of the DCE soybean 2601 contract was 3,999 yuan/ton, up 0.76% during the day and 0.70% at night [10] - Trend Intensity: +1 [12] Corn - Fundamentals: The closing price of the C2601 contract was 2,127 yuan/ton, up 1.05% during the day and 0.24% at night. The trading volume decreased by 61,849 lots, and positions increased by 33,636 lots. The spot price in Guangdong Shekou was 2,340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The northern corn bulk shipping port price decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton [13][14] - Trend Intensity: 0 [17] Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 15.67 cents/pound, down 0.2 cents. The domestic 24/25 and 25/26 sugar production, consumption, and import volume were estimated. The global 25/26 sugar supply is expected to be in a shortage of 230,000 tons [19][20][21] - Trend Intensity: -1 [22] Cotton - Fundamentals: The closing price of the CF2601 contract was 13,270 yuan/ton, up 0.04% during the day and down 0.08% at night. The spot price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,407 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. Cotton spot trading was average, and spinning mills maintained rigid demand procurement [24][25] - Trend Intensity: 0 [28] Eggs - Fundamentals: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract was 3,204 yuan/500kg, down 0.87%. The spot price in Liaoning was 2.80 yuan/jin, unchanged [29] - Trend Intensity: 0 [29] Pigs - Fundamentals: The spot price in Henan was 11,130 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The closing price of the pig 2601 contract was 12,195 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton. Guizhou Zhenfeng Fuyuan registered 21 lots of warehouse receipts [32][33] - Trend Intensity: -1 [34] Peanuts - Fundamentals: The spot price of Liaoning 308 general goods was 8,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The closing price of the PK601 contract was 8,062 yuan/ton, up 0.57%. Rainy weather affected the peanut harvest and listing in many producing areas [36][37] - Trend Intensity: 1 [39]