国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][7] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to see a slight price correction due to weak current situations and weakening expectations [2][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range fluctuations with cost as the bottom support [2][13] - Coke and coking coal are expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][16][17] - Logs are expected to have repeated fluctuations [2][19] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The closing price of I2601 was 776.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton (-0.70%). The trading volume was 508,365 hands, up 8,566 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined slightly, and some basis and spread values changed slightly [5] - Macro and Industry News: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [6] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,034 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.85%), and HC2601 was 3,212 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.86%). Spot prices in various regions decreased, and some basis and spread values changed [8] - Macro and Industry News: In early October 2025, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased by 7.5% month - on - month, pig iron increased by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 8.5%. Steel inventories increased. In August 2025, steel exports decreased slightly, and imports increased [8][10] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: Futures and spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed, and some basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread values also changed [13] - Macro and Industry News: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in the market, and a large steel mill's inquiry prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in October changed compared to September [13] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [15] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The closing price of JM2601 was 1,151 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.2%), and J2601 was 1,642 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton (-0.8%). Spot prices were mostly stable, and some basis and spread values changed [17] - Macro and Industry News: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [18] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of coke is 0 (neutral), and that of coking coal is 1 (slightly bullish) [18] Logs - Fundamental Data: Futures contract prices, trading volumes, and open interests of logs changed, and spot prices in different regions were mostly stable [20] - Macro and Industry News: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [22] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [22]