Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After a previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. The market risk appetite has decreased, and short - term indices face uncertainties due to concerns about Sino - US tariffs. However, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the mid - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Recent Sino - US trade disputes have led to a short - term decline in risk appetite, which is beneficial for the bond market's repair. But the progress of tariffs is highly uncertain in the later stage. In the fourth quarter, the bond market needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The overall bond market may maintain a volatile trend, and it may oscillate and repair if the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases [8]. - Precious metals have shown strong price performance due to dovish remarks from Fed officials and a tight silver spot situation. Although prices have fallen after a short - term rapid increase, it is still recommended to hold long positions [9][10]. - For various metals and non - metals, the Sino - US trade situation is uncertain, and each product's price trend is affected by its own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. Some products are expected to have limited downside space, while others may face downward pressure [13][15][27]. - In the energy and chemical sectors, different products have different price trends and trading strategies based on their supply - demand balances, inventory levels, and cost factors. Some products are recommended for short - term observation, while others may have opportunities for long - or short - term operations [52][54][55]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different supply - demand situations. Some products are expected to have price increases, while others are expected to decline, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed accordingly [74][75][84]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - Market Information: In late September, M2 balance was 335.38 trillion yuan, up 8.4% year - on - year; M1 balance was 113.15 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year - on - year; M0 balance was 13.58 trillion yuan, up 11.5% year - on - year. By the end of 2027, 28 million charging facilities will be built nationwide. US nuclear power concept stocks rose strongly, and the rumor of a large robot order for Sanhua Intelligent Control was false [2]. - Strategy View: After a previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence. The market risk appetite has decreased, and short - term indices face uncertainties due to concerns about Sino - US tariffs. However, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the mid - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On Wednesday, the TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts had different changes. In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In late September, M2, M1, and M0 balances had year - on - year increases. The central bank conducted a 435 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Wednesday, with a net investment of 435 billion yuan [5][6][7]. - Strategy View: Recent Sino - US trade disputes have led to a short - term decline in risk appetite, which is beneficial for the bond market's repair. But the progress of tariffs is highly uncertain in the later stage. In the fourth quarter, the bond market needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The overall bond market may maintain a volatile trend, and it may oscillate and repair if the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases [8]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold rose 1.39% to 962.08 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 3.97% to 12,138 yuan/kilogram. Fed officials' dovish remarks and a tight silver spot situation led to strong precious metal prices [9]. - Strategy View: Although precious metal prices have fallen after a short - term rapid increase, it is still recommended to hold long positions. The reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 921 - 980 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 11,368 - 13,000 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: Overnight, Powell mentioned the possible end of balance - sheet reduction. The copper price first rose and then fell. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic spot premiums varied. The domestic copper spot import loss narrowed, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased [12]. - Strategy View: Trump's threat to impose high tariffs on China is uncertain. Fundamentally, the expected tightening of copper supply in the next two years and the decrease in domestic refined copper production support the price. The short - term decline in copper prices may be limited. The reference operating range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 84,400 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M copper contract is 10,450 - 10,750 US dollars/ton [13]. Aluminum - Market Information: The aluminum price oscillated and rebounded. The LME 3M aluminum contract rose slightly, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at a certain price. Domestic and overseas inventories decreased, and the downstream consumption sentiment improved [14]. - Strategy View: The Sino - US trade situation is uncertain. Domestically, with the increase in the proportion of aluminum water, seasonal consumption recovery, and resilient exports, the pressure on aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is small, and the downside space for aluminum prices is expected to be limited. The reference operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,740 - 21,050 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M aluminum contract is 2,720 - 2,770 US dollars/ton [15]. Zinc - Market Information: The Shanghai zinc index fell. LME zinc prices also decreased. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the basis and spreads had different values [16]. - Strategy View: During the holiday, domestic zinc smelters continued production, and some downstream enterprises had long holidays. The LME registered zinc warrants are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. After the opening of the zinc ingot export window, short - covering in the domestic market provides short - term support for Shanghai zinc. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will oscillate at a low level in the short term, with increased risk and volatility [17]. Lead - Market Information: The Shanghai lead index rose. LME lead prices also increased. The domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the basis and spreads had different values [18]. - Strategy View: The visible lead ore inventory increased slightly, and the production of primary lead smelters remained high. The waste lead inventory decreased, and the production of secondary lead smelters increased slightly but remained at a low level. The lead ingot factory inventory increased. The downstream storage enterprises had shorter holiday times than in previous years, and the industrial data improved marginally. On October 10, a large number of LME lead warehouse warrants were cancelled, increasing the structural risk of LME lead. It is expected that Shanghai lead will run strongly in the short term [19]. Nickel - Market Information: The nickel price oscillated. The spot market trading was average, and the price of nickel ore and nickel iron remained stable. The price of MHP remained high due to increased demand [20]. - Strategy View: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may drive down market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. The recent weakening of nickel iron prices and the significant inventory pressure on refined nickel may drag down nickel prices. However, in the long term, the US easing expectations, China's anti - involution policy, and the RKAB approval are expected to support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider going long on dips if the price drops significantly. The reference operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [20]. Tin - Market Information: The Shanghai tin main contract rose. The domestic futures registered warehouse warrants increased, and the price of tin concentrate decreased. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar and Indonesia was tight, and the smelter's operating rate decreased. The demand in the new energy and AI sectors was strong, but the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors were weak. The demand in the peak season improved marginally, but high prices still inhibited consumption [21]. - Strategy View: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may drive down market risk appetite, but the short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance, and the demand in the peak season is recovering. Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 34,000 - 36,000 US dollars/ton [21]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The spot index of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, and the futures contract price increased slightly. The spot premium was flat [22]. - Strategy View: The warehouse warrants of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased this week, and the inventory continued to decline. The available spot for circulation is tight, and the premium is strengthening. If consumption remains strong and resonates with the macro - environment, the upside space for lithium prices may be opened. It is more likely to oscillate strongly in the short term. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 71,880 - 75,280 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index fell. The domestic and overseas spot prices decreased, and the import window was close to closing. The futures inventory increased, and the ore price remained stable [24]. - Strategy View: The ore price is supported in the short term but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may intensify the over - supply situation. However, the increased expectation of Fed rate cuts may drive the non - ferrous metal sector to run strongly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for the resonance of macro - sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [25]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless steel main contract fell slightly. The spot prices in different markets had different changes, and the raw material prices remained stable. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [26]. - Strategy View: After the holiday, the social inventory increased significantly, but the terminal consumption was weak, and the market did not show the characteristics of the traditional peak season. The prices of Tsingshan products led the decline, and the market trading was light. It is expected that the market trend will be weak [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The AD2511 contract rose. The trading volume decreased, and the warehouse warrants decreased. The price difference between the AL2511 and AD2511 contracts increased. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price remained unchanged, and the import price increased. The domestic inventory increased slightly [28]. - Strategy View: The market sentiment is volatile, and the delivery pressure on the near - month contracts of cast aluminum alloy is still high, and the upside space for prices is relatively limited [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot decreased. The registered warehouse warrants and open interest increased [30]. - Strategy View: The overall commodity market atmosphere was weak yesterday, and steel prices continued to decline. Trump's tariff remarks disturbed the market, but the direct impact on steel is limited. Fundamentally, the demand for steel during the National Day holiday was significantly weaker than last year, and the inventory continued to accumulate. In the short term, the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to reverse, and attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [31]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The iron ore main contract fell. The spot price and basis had certain values [32]. - Strategy View: In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased seasonally, and the near - term arrival volume increased. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output remained stable, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. The inventory accumulation level of steel during the holiday was high, and the post - holiday de - stocking situation is under test. Fundamentally, if the situation of finished steel weakens after the holiday, the iron ore price may adjust accordingly. The terminal demand is weak, and the macro - disturbance continues. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The glass main contract fell. The spot prices in different regions had different changes, and the inventory increased. The open interest of long and short positions increased. The soda ash main contract fell slightly. The spot price decreased, and the inventory increased. The open interest of long and short positions also increased [34][36]. - Strategy View: For glass, some production lines are planned to resume production, and the cost has decreased. The terminal demand is weaker than expected, and the supply pressure is increasing. The market sentiment is cautious and bearish. For soda ash, the supply is stable, but the price has decreased. The demand is weak, and the market trading is light. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [35][36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The manganese silicon main contract rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon main contract also rose. The spot prices were higher than the futures prices. The manganese silicon price is in an oscillation range and is currently close to the lower limit. The ferrosilicon price has broken through the support level and is weak [37]. - Strategy View: Affected by short - term demand pressure, the black sector has experienced a downward correction. The high pig iron output still exerts pressure on prices. The price may first decline to release the bearish sentiment and then rise with the expectation of the Fourth Plenary Session. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities on dips. For manganese silicon, if the black sector strengthens, pay attention to the disturbance from the manganese ore end. For ferrosilicon, it is likely to follow the black sector's trend [38][39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The industrial silicon futures main contract rose. The spot prices remained stable, and the basis was positive. The polysilicon futures main contract rose. The spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis was positive [42][44]. - Strategy View: For industrial silicon, the short - term price oscillates. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation is stable in the short term. In the future, the supply pressure will decrease, and the far - month contract valuation is expected to increase. There is still room for price repair. For polysilicon, the market may enter a fundamental correction stage. The short - term price is constrained by high inventory and weak demand. The supply - demand pattern may improve after November. The current price fluctuation is regarded as a technical correction [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price oscillated and showed signs of stabilization. The long and short sides had different views. The tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday, and the export of semi - steel tires slowed down. The domestic natural rubber inventory decreased. The spot prices of some rubber products increased [47][48][49][50][51]. - Strategy View: The macro - disturbance may temporarily decrease, and the rubber price may stabilize in the short term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long on dips with a short - term and quick - in - quick - out strategy. It is also recommended to partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The INE main crude oil futures and related refined oil futures fell. The Singapore ESG oil product inventory data showed different changes in gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil inventories [53]. - Strategy View: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly, so the oil price should not be overly bearish in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, it is recommended to wait and see and wait for the verification of OPEC's export price - support intention when the oil price falls [54]. Methanol - Market Information: The methanol spot and futures prices had different changes, and the basis turned positive. The 1 - 5 spread increased [55]. - Strategy View: The import disturbance has weakened, and methanol is expected to return to its own fundamental pricing. The domestic supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is large, and the fundamental situation is weak. However, the downside space is relatively limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [55].
文字早评2025/10/16：宏观金融类-20251016
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-16 02:03