工业硅：弱势震荡趋势，多晶硅：关注今日会议内容，盘面偏强运行-20251016

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is in a weak and volatile trend [1]. - Polysilicon's futures market is running strongly, and attention should be paid to the content of today's meeting [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: - Industrial silicon (Si2511): The closing price is 8,570 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 70 yuan compared to T - 5 and 250 yuan compared to T - 22; the trading volume is 225,068 lots, showing a decreasing trend; the open interest is 142,381 lots, also decreasing [2]. - Polysilicon (PS2511): The closing price is 50,865 yuan/ton, an increase of 875 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume is 276,176 lots; the open interest is 80,114 lots [2]. - Basis: - Industrial silicon: The spot premium or discount varies according to different benchmarks, such as +830 yuan/ton for East China Si5530 and +330 yuan/ton for East China Si4210 [2]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium for N - type re - investment is +1385 yuan/ton [2]. - Prices: - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8,850 yuan/ton, and Yunnan Si4210 is 9,950 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - investment material is 52,750 yuan/ton [2]. - Profits: - Industrial silicon: The profit of Xinjiang new standard 553 silicon plant is - 2,699.5 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new standard 553 is - 3,638 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 14.0 yuan/kg [2]. - Inventory: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.5 million tons, the enterprise inventory is 16.8 million tons, and the industry inventory is 71.3 million tons [2]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 24.0 million tons [2]. - Raw Material Costs: - Industrial silicon: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes vary in different regions [2]. - Polysilicon: The prices of related products such as trichlorosilane, silicon powder, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are provided [2]. - Organic silicon: The price of DMC is 11,300 yuan/ton, and the enterprise profit is - 830 yuan/ton [2]. - Aluminum alloy: The price of ADC12 is 21,050 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 130 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 15, 2025, the State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co., Ltd. announced the results of the competitive bidding for the mechanism electricity price of incremental new energy projects in 2025. The mechanism electricity price for wind power is 0.252 yuan/kWh with a scale of 18,539,219,756 kWh, and for photovoltaic power is 0.235 yuan/kWh with a scale of 3,608,399,178 kWh [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend; the trend intensity of polysilicon is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [4].