格林大华期货早盘提示-20251017

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite short - term market volatility, the expectations of corporate profit improvement and policy support are clear. In the short - term, the domestic demand sector may take the lead, while the technological revolution and manufacturing recovery form the long - term investment mainlines. A - shares are currently reasonably undervalued and attractive to foreign investors. The technology sector remains the most promising and certain area in the long - run, and short - term fluctuations do not hinder long - term optimism. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets were consolidating, and the growth indices were adjusting. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.93 trillion yuan, showing a shrinking volume and a continued decrease in selling pressure. The CSI 300 index closed at 4,618 points, up 12 points or 0.26%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3,019 points, up 17 points or 0.59%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7,231 points, down 62 points or - 0.86%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7,401 points, down 81 points or - 1.09%. Among industry and theme ETFs, coal ETF, communication equipment ETF, energy ETF, bank ETF, and dividend state - owned enterprise ETF led the gains, while rare earth ETF, steel ETF, and robot 50ETF led the losses. Among the sector indices of the two markets, coal mining, insurance, national banks, coke processing, and oil and gas extraction indices led the gains, while rare metals, forestry, metal new materials, precious metals, and wind power equipment indices led the losses. The net inflow of settled funds in the SSE 50 index stock index futures was 1.5 billion yuan. [1] 3.2 Important Information - As of the end of September, China's M2 balance was 335.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%, 0.4 percentage points lower than at the end of last month. The balance of narrow - sense money (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, indicating accelerated monetary activity. - An investment fund AIP jointly established by BlackRock, NVIDIA, and Microsoft announced a $40 billion deal to acquire Aligned, a data center giant under Macquarie Asset Management, one of the largest data center transactions in history. - The demand for AI chips remains strong. TSMC's Q3 net profit reached a record high, exceeding expectations by 39%. TSMC's CEO said that AI demand remains strong and will be robust throughout 2025. - Morgan Stanley pointed out that high - quality electric vehicles have become the industry standard, and the real innovation opportunities in the automotive industry lie in the breakthrough of the AI ecosystem, proposing the "3A" opportunities of autonomous driving, AI embodiment, and AI data centers. - Goldman Sachs' chief global equity strategist said that although the valuation of the technology sector has risen, it has not reached the level of a historical bubble. The current rise of technology stocks is mainly driven by fundamental growth. - As of October 14, the total scale of gold - themed ETFs, including commodity - type and stock - type, was close to 210 billion yuan, attracting over 80 billion yuan of funds this year. Since October 9, the net inflow of gold - themed ETFs has exceeded 10 billion yuan. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that the employment level generally remained stable, but most regions reported that more employers were reducing their workforce through layoffs or natural attrition due to weak demand, economic uncertainty, and increased investment in AI. - Options trading linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) showed that traders are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points at its meeting later this month or in December. - The Fed's Standing Repurchase Facility (SRF) was suddenly used for $6.75 billion, the highest non - quarter - end level since the pandemic, exposing a rapid market funding gap and raising concerns about the next liquidity crisis. [1][2] 3.3 Market Logic - On Thursday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets were consolidating, and the growth indices were adjusting. On October 10, the net subscription amount of equity - type ETFs totaled 31.488 billion yuan, second only to April 7 and 8 this year. On October 13, over 20 billion yuan of funds entered the market, and the net subscription amount of equity - type ETFs was 24.614 billion yuan. Many securities firms said that despite short - term market volatility, the expectations of corporate profit improvement and policy support are clear. In the short - term, the domestic demand sector may take the lead, while the technological revolution and manufacturing recovery form the long - term investment mainlines. Many foreign institutions believe that the current valuation of A - shares is reasonably low, which is attractive for global diversified allocation and hedging against US dollar asset risks. [2] 3.4 Market Outlook - On Thursday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets were narrowly fluctuating, and the growth indices were adjusting, with the market in a defensive mode. The Fed chairman hinted at a normal interest rate cut in October, and the market is betting on a 50 - basis - point cut in December. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised to 7.10 yuan, indicating a continuous inflow of foreign capital into RMB assets. In the future, the technology sector remains the most promising and certain area, and short - term fluctuations do not hinder long - term optimism. Stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index. [2] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: The Fed chairman hinted at a normal interest rate cut in October. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised to 7.10 yuan, indicating a continuous inflow of foreign capital into RMB assets. The market is in a defensive state, and stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index. - Stock index option trading: Seize the opportunity to buy far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options on the CSI 300 index. [3]