月度供需宽松，猪价整体承压-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for different agricultural products: - Oils and Fats: Oscillating [5] - Protein Meals: Oscillating [6] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating [9] - Hogs: Oscillating Weakly [9] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [13] - Cotton: Oscillating Weakly [14] - Sugar: Oscillating Weakly [15] - Pulp: Oscillating Weakly [17] - Offset Printing Paper: Oscillating [18] - Logs: Oscillating Strongly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex situation with different products having their own supply - demand dynamics, influenced by factors such as macro - environment, trade relations, production, and consumption patterns. Overall, most products are expected to be in an oscillating state, with some showing a weakening or strengthening trend [5][9][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - Oils and Fats: Due to factors like the US government "shutdown", trade tensions, and mixed supply - demand expectations, oils and fats are expected to continue oscillating. Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, and the inventory situation varies among different types of oils [5]. - Protein Meals: US soybean exports face challenges, while Brazilian soybean planting progresses smoothly. In China, short - term supply pressure is high, and long - term supply is expected to increase. Demand for protein meals may be stable or slightly increase [6]. - Corn/Starch: Market sentiment has improved, with spot prices stabilizing and futures rebounding. However, new - grain supply pressure exists in the short term, and the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [9]. - Hogs: Monthly supply - demand is loose, and hog prices are under pressure. In the short and medium term, supply is abundant, while in the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy leads to capacity reduction, supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [9]. - Natural Rubber: NR shows a relatively strong performance, while RU is affected by over - expected state reserve sales. The market is influenced by factors such as raw material prices, import volume, and demand [10]. - Synthetic Rubber: The price is at a low level and has rebounded from the bottom, but the fundamental pressure is large, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [13]. - Cotton: Cotton prices have stabilized and oscillated. The expected reduction in Xinjiang cotton production and the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations are the main influencing factors [14]. - Sugar: The international and domestic sugar markets are in a relatively loose supply situation. In the short term, there is some support, but in the medium - long term, prices are expected to decline [15]. - Pulp: The market remains weak, and pulp prices are at a low level. Although there are some short - term factors driving up futures prices, the overall fundamental situation is bearish [17]. - Offset Printing Paper: The market maintains a narrow - range oscillation, with supply increasing and demand remaining weak [18]. - Logs: The market is affected by the special port fee and weak fundamentals. Although there is a potential for short - term upward movement, the long - term outlook is still under pressure due to weak demand [20]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring section for different varieties, but no specific data details are provided in the content for further summary. 3.3 Commodity Index - On October 16, 2025, the comprehensive index, special index, and sector index of the commodity are presented. The special index shows an increase, while the agricultural product index has a decline in different time - periods [179][181].