9月通胀数据点评：CPI环比季节性回升，PPI同比降幅收窄

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a narrowing of the decline by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking a continuous increase for five months and reaching a 19-month high[4] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.1%, transitioning from flat to positive growth, although this increase is below the historical average over the past decade[4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year in September, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - The year-on-year decline in PPI is primarily attributed to a low base from the previous year, with production material prices decreasing by 2.4% and living material prices down by 1.7%[4] - Month-on-month, the PPI remained flat for two consecutive months, indicating a reduction in downward price pressure[4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current low price levels are expected to persist, with pork prices continuing to decline; however, policies aimed at stimulating consumption may lead to a slight increase in CPI growth in October[4] - The real estate market remains weak, and infrastructure investment is below expectations, which may continue to exert pressure on industrial product prices[4] - The PPI is anticipated to continue its year-on-year decline, with a slight narrowing expected in October, but it is unlikely to turn positive within the year[4] Group 4: Risks - Potential risks include policy uncertainties, unexpected changes in macroeconomic fundamentals, and geopolitical risks from abroad[4]