情绪回暖但走势分化，20号胶触底反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating [5] - Protein Meals: Oscillating [5] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating [7] - Pigs: Oscillating weakly [8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [9] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [11] - Cotton: Oscillating weakly [13] - Sugar: Oscillating weakly [14] - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [16] - Offset Paper: Oscillating [18] - Logs: Oscillating weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the agricultural market has improved, but the trends are differentiated. For example, NR in natural rubber has rebounded significantly, while other varieties show different degrees of oscillation or weak trends [1][9]. - Due to various factors such as policy, supply - demand relationship, and weather, different agricultural products face different market situations. Some are affected by short - term policies and show short - term rebounds, while others are suppressed by long - term supply and demand and show weak trends [7][13]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - View: May continue to oscillate, waiting for further information. Due to the uncertainty of US soybean demand, the US soybean and soybean oil markets are in a state of oscillation. The domestic oil market is also affected by factors such as the US government "shutdown", trade situation, and production expectations of Brazil [5]. - Logic: From a macro perspective, the US government "shutdown", the repeated Sino - US trade situation, and the strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut affect the market. From an industrial perspective, the suspension of US soybean data updates, the expected reduction of US soybean exports, the expected increase in Brazilian soybean production, and the slow de - stocking of domestic soybean oil all contribute to the oscillation of the oil market [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - View: The market continues to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to the changes in Sino - US trade relations. - Logic: Internationally, the harvest of US soybeans is progressing smoothly, but the export prospects are not good. Brazil's soybean sowing progress is fast. Domestically, the short - term downstream inventory is not low, and the supply pressure is large. In the long term, the supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily, while rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal [5]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - View: The State Council's guidance to actively enter the market for procurement boosts sentiment, and the futures price rebounds. - Logic: The price of domestic corn is running weakly. The pressure of new grain listing is still there, but the launch of reserve grain procurement provides some support. In the long term, the corn market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [7]. 3.4 Pigs - View: A small amount of second - fattening pigs enter the market, and the pig price rebounds at a low level. - Logic: In the short term, the supply pressure continues to increase, and the demand enters the off - season after the National Day. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy to reduce production is implemented, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [7][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - View: The sentiment has improved, but the trends are differentiated. NR has rebounded significantly. - Logic: The performance of NR is stronger than that of RU. The reasons include the low import volume of standard rubber, few warehouse receipts, and strong raw materials. The demand is expected to remain stable, and the macro factors have a greater impact on the price. It is recommended to wait and see or continue to pay attention to narrowing the spread [1][9][10]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - View: Driven by natural rubber, it rebounds slightly. - Logic: The BR futures price follows the trend of NR. The high production volume throughout the year is a major pressure on the futures price. The growth rate of demand is lower than that of production, and the social inventory remains high. The raw material price is weak, and the supply is abundant, so the price is difficult to improve significantly [11]. 3.7 Cotton - View: The cotton price oscillates at a low level. - Logic: The expected increase in China's cotton production in the 25/26 season has led to a decline in the futures price. After the National Day, the decline has slowed down. Future attention should be paid to the purchase price of new cotton, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the actual production of new cotton [12][13]. 3.8 Sugar - View: The sugar price continues to oscillate weakly. - Logic: Internationally, the export volume of Brazilian sugar is increasing, and the international trade flow is loose. Domestically, the import volume is high, the sales are average, and the industrial inventory is increasing. In the long term, the global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the 25/26 season [14]. 3.9 Pulp - View: The weak rebound continues. - Logic: The futures price of pulp has increased due to the large virtual - to - real ratio of the 01 contract and the possible shortage of deliverable warehouse receipts. However, there are many negative factors in the fundamentals, and the positive factors in the industrial end have limited driving force [15][16]. 3.10 Offset Paper - View: It oscillates in a narrow range. - Logic: The fundamentals of offset paper have not changed significantly. The publishing tenders in Shandong and Jiangsu are starting, and there is pressure to reduce prices. The supply is increasing, and the demand is limited, so the paper price may decline slightly after the festival [18]. 3.11 Logs - View: Affected by the delivery side, the futures price oscillates at a low level. - Logic: The main contradictions in the log market are the negative impact of domestic timber delivery in Chongqing and the failure of the peak - season expectation in the fundamentals. The demand is weak, the inventory is not low, and the willingness of buyers to take delivery is not strong. The futures price may oscillate in the range of 790 - 840 [20].